BTC to Target $29,000 or Face Sub-$27,500 on Regulatory Angst

The Day Ahead

After a range-bound start to the second quarter, regulatory activity and US lawmaker chatter will remain the focal point.

In recent weeks, SEC and CFTC activity have shown their intent while lawmakers stand back despite the contrasting classifications of cryptos as commodities and securities.

However, investors should continue to monitor the crypto news wires for updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case. Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will also need consideration.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was down 0.13% to $28,406. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $28,487 before falling to a low of $28,366.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $28,487 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $28,773 and the Saturday high of $28,817. A return to $28,500 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $29,103 and resistance at $29,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $29,719.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $28,157 in play. However, barring a crypto event-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$27,500. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $28,157 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $27,255.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA ($27,939). The 50-day EMA pulled further away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.

A hold above S1 ($28,157) and the 50-day EMA ($27,939) would support a breakout from R1 ($28,773) to target R2 ($29,103) and $29,500. However, a fall through S1 ($28,157) would bring the 50-day EMA ($27,810) and S2 ($27,871) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.