Canadian Greenback Value (USD/CAD), Information, and Evaluation:USD/CAD breaks out of its multi-week buying and selling vary.Shopper sentiment kno
Canadian Greenback Value (USD/CAD), Information, and Evaluation:
- USD/CAD breaks out of its multi-week buying and selling vary.
- Shopper sentiment knowledge exhibits merchants slicing again their lengthy positions.
The FOMC-induced US greenback rally continues at tempo, breaking a variety of USD-pair buying and selling ranges and resistance ranges. Considered one of many USD-pairs that stand out is USD/CAD which appears to be beginning a powerful reversal of the 15-month sell-off from the March 2020 excessive of 1.4670. The breakout from the multi-week buying and selling vary now appears full, leaving USD/CAD room to maneuver larger over the medium-term. Within the quick time period, this week’s rally could also be weak to a partial re-trace with the 14-day CCI indicator flashing an excessive overbought market sign. For the rally to proceed, this studying might want to normalize, suggesting both a partial re-trace from present ranges or a interval of consolidation.
The latest setback within the oil market can also be weighing on the Canadian greenback to a small diploma, though the small sell-off in oil is from heady ranges final seen over two years in the past. The outlook for oil stays optimistic and once more wants a while to shake off present US greenback power.
Whereas the short-term outlook is probably going impartial, for the pair to push forward additional, then the collection of decrease highs off the March 2020 excessive must be damaged. The final decrease excessive continues to be three large figures away at 1.2656 and this can take a while regardless of the present USD bullishness.
USD/CAD Each day Value Chart (October 2020 – June 18, 2021)
IG Retail dealer knowledge present 66.83% of merchants are net-long with the ratio of merchants lengthy to quick at 2.02 to 1.The variety of merchants net-long is 11.88% decrease than yesterday and 31.99% decrease from final week, whereas the variety of merchants net-short is 1.71% decrease than yesterday and 22.67% larger from final week.
We usually take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the actual fact merchants are net-long suggests USD/CAD costs might proceed to fall.But merchants are much less net-long than yesterday and in contrast with final week. Latest adjustments in sentiment warn that the present USD/CAD worth pattern might quickly reverse larger regardless of the actual fact merchants stay net-long.
What’s your view on USD/CAD – bullish or bearish?? You may tell us by way of the shape on the finish of this piece or you may contact the writer by way of Twitter @nickcawley1.
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