(AI video summary)
This video was created on 16 July for IG audiences by ausbiz.
Indices: market dynamics and analysis
US Tech 100 gains driven by Nvidia
Despite overall weakness in the broader Wall Street market, the US Tech 100 (Nasdaq 100) has shown resilience, primarily boosted by Nvidia’s strong performance. This uplift followed the resumption of chip exports to China, which had previously been halted, costing Nvidia billions. Outside of the tech sector, the market experienced a negative night due to mixed earnings from major banks and inflation-driven yield rises unsettling the market.
US 500 index faces crucial support levels
The US 500 (S&P 500) highlighted a unique price action with new highs met by selling pressure. It recently hit a significant 6300-point milestone and is now looking at crucial support levels around 6200 to 6180. According to the Elliott Wave framework, the US 500 may be completing three of a potential five waves, indicating a possible wave four pullback upon breaking support.
Australia 200 nears double top pattern formation
Locally, the Australia 200 (ASX 200) achieved a record closing high but remains seven points shy of its previous high in June at 8639. Recent weakness raises the possibility of a double top forming, with current trading around 8550. A break below the support level at 8550 to 8530 could indicate a pullback towards 8421, or potentially further to the 200-day moving average at 8250.
Commodities: oil market trends
In the oil market, traders face uncertainty related to Russian export tariffs. Although the initial market reaction was more muted than expected, factors like subpar gross domestic product (GDP) and housing data from China suggest possible challenges for oil demand. Currently, crude oil prices are stabilising between $64 and $74, with a break below $64 potentially indicating further decline into prior trading ranges.
Currency and crypto movements
Impact of US inflation on US dollar and Aussie dollar
Recent US core inflation data, presenting a 2.9% increase, impacted the US dollar and anticipated market movements. Despite a challenging start to the year, the US dollar index (DXY) shows potential recovery from $98.50 toward 100, projecting a minor rally. Consequently, the Australian dollar may experience a pullback to around $0.64 amidst these currency shifts.
Bitcoin volatility and potential future growth
Bitcoin experienced significant volatility, with recent price action suggesting a short-term ‘blow-off’ high above $123,000, followed by a pullback below $116,000. The current stability may lead Bitcoin to retest earlier highs near $112,000 before escalating further. The relative strength index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions needing correction to build momentum for potential future gains.
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