Could the largest company in Mexico go bankrupt?

As an example, between 2019 and 2022, the semi-public Brazilian company Petrobras earned profits of $5.6 per barrel of processed crude.

In short, two peers with the same business showed significantly different results.

While Petrobras earned profits of $5.6 per barrel of processed crude, Pemex’s losses exceeded $30 per barrel. Just on February 9th, Moody’s downgraded the oil company’s rating by two levels, highlighting the limited capacity of the company to improve its performance, primarily due to the maturity of its oil fields and the lack of capital for investment, as well as the mandate to expand its refining business.

In fact, according to most experts, Pemex is technically bankrupt. Its national or foreign creditors could petition before a Concursal District Judge. Its subsidiaries could also declare bankruptcy. This would be a bombshell for the AMLO government.

Pemex has received around 1.5 trillion pesos from the federal government without delivering results. Despite being a public company, it is not yielding anything but losses.

The Mexican company needs to pay around 9 billion in bonds and long-term bank loans in 2024. Will it be able to do so?