FOREX-Dollar slips to multi-month low as traders eye PCE data

(Updates levels, adds new comment)

By Brigid Riley

TOKYO, Nov 28 (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar ticked down to a three-month low against peer currencies on Tuesday after slipping overnight on weaker-than-expected new home sales data, while traders hunkered down on bets that the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates in the first half of next year.

U.S. new home sales fell 5.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000 units in October, data showed, below the 723,000 units expected by economists polled by Reuters and sending Treasury yields into a decline.

The dollar index, a measure of the greenback against a basket of currencies, was last at 103.16, hanging around its lowest since Aug. 31. The dollar was track for a loss of more than 3% in November, its worst performance in a year.

Market expectation that the Fed’s rate increase cycle has finally come to an end has also put downward pressure on the greenback. U.S. rate futures showed about a 25% chance that the Fed could begin cutting rates as early as March and increasing to nearly 45% by May, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

“Slowing growth momentum, peak rates, rate cuts next year, and unwinding of long positioning: it’s the dynamic feeding a weaker U.S. dollar and driving the entire currency complex,” said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.

“Anything that brings that trend into question will change the outlook; however, the bar for that to happen is high,” he added, saying the dollar likely has more room to fall.

Traders are now eyeing U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index – the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – this week for more confirmation that inflation in the world’s largest economy is slowing.

PCE tops off a slew of other key economic events this week, including Chinese purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data and OPEC+ decision.

After delaying its policy meeting to this Thursday, OPEC+ is looking at deepening oil production cuts, according to an OPEC+ source.

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Elsewhere, the Australian dollar briefly touched a near four-month high of $0.6632 against the greenback before easing to $0.6621. Data out Tuesday morning showed that domestic retail sales in October declined from the previous month.

The kiwi also momentarily hit its highest since Aug. 10 at $0.6114 before sliding back down to $0.61015. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, where it is expected to keep interest rates steady at 5.50% for the fourth straight time.

Elsewhere, the yen made up some ground on Tuesday in the wake of continued dollar weakening, with dollar/yen inching down around 0.3% to 148.21 yen per greenback.

The Japanese currency may, however, be in for some turbulence depending on the outcome of this week’s inflation data from the United States.

“The risk for dollar bears is that U.S. PCE inflation does not come in as soft as hoped,” said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index. “That leaves (dollar/yen) vulnerable to a bounce this week.”

(Reporting by Brigid Riley. Editing by Gerry Doyle)