Forex Signals Brief April 22: Manufacturing and US Q1 GDP This Week

Last week the moves weren’t too large as most forex pairs traded in a tight range, including Gold, which refrained from making new record highs, but it stayed close to $2.400 as uncertainty remained high. However there were many twists and turns as geopolitics and central bankers kept the volatility on.

The retreat in stock markets escalated further, with the S&P 500 index falling below 5,00 points, while the Nvidia shares fell $84.31 or -10.0% to $76os. Meanwhile, ECB officials including president Christine Lagarge, Muller etc kept advocating for multipleinterest  rate cuts starting in June, however the Euro held well.

Today the economic calendar is light, with only Christine Lagarde holding a speech in the afternoon. However, tomorrow it kicks off with manufacturing and services PMI reports, followed by the US GDP report on Wednesday. So, the week ahead, from April 22nd to April 26th, brings a variety of economic events and announcements across different regions:

• People’s Bank of China (PBoC) Loan Prime Rate (LPR)
• US National Activity Index for March
• South Korean Producer Price Index (PPI) Growth for March

• Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Eurozone, UK, and US for April
• US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for April
• National Bank of Hungary (NBH) Announcement
• New Zealand Trade Balance for March

• Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March
• Bank of Indonesia Announcement
• Flash Services and Composite PMI for Eurozone, UK, and US for April
• German Ifo Business Climate Survey for April
• US Durable Goods Orders for March
• Canadian Retail Sales for February

• Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) Announcement
• South Korean Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q1
• US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for Q1
• German GfK Consumer Sentiment for May

• Bank of Japan (BoJ) Announcement and Outlook Report
• Central Bank of Russia (CBR) Announcement
• Japanese Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April
• US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for March

Last week the volatility wasn’t too high, but there were many unexpected reversals, with the US Dollar resuming the uptrend and then reversing back down. Even Godl refrained from making a new record high last week, bouncing up and down in a range. We opened 26 trading signals, ending up in breakeven with 13 winning forex signals and 13 losing ones.

Gold experienced a big price jump earlier today, reaching a high of $2,392.70, a 1% gain before backtracking. The precious metal has surpassed its pivot point of $2,400, indicating that the market is bullish. Moving averages provide further support for the price. If buyers continue to drive the price higher, the major resistance levels to watch are $2,420 and $2,431.

The USD/CHF pair fell sharply late last week following Israel’s midnight strike on Iran. This decrease drove the price down to around 0.9010, where a strong support zone held firm. The pair later recovered as reports of the scope of the attack surfaced. Following the bounce, the pair reversed course and surged again above the 0.91 mark, where it encountered selling pressure. As a result, the pair has formed a technical trading range around these important support and resistance levels.

USD/CHF – 240 minute Chart

Bitcoin’s price has lately plummeted below $60,000, marking its lowest point since the beginning of March. The cryptocurrency is currently trading around $61,200, approaching its lowest position in almost a month, when it was about $59,300. If this level is breached, the next lower target was expected but this support zone held and BTC bounced above $65,000 again.

Ethereum also retreated lower, falling below $3,000 last week, [iercing the 100 SMA (green) on the daily chart as well. But the price climbed back up and reversed above the $3,000 level. Yesterdwy buyers pushed even higher the climb stopped right at the 20 SMA (gray) so let’s see if they will push above it today.