Forex Signals Brief January 30: First US Jobs Report to Start the FOMC Week Soft

Yesterday markets started the week in a volatile manner at first, with Gold and crude Oil opening with a bullish gap higher after the weekend attacks on Oil ships in the Red Sea which turned the sentiment negative. However, that didn’t last long and crude Oil reversed back down to close the day $2 lower at $77 while the seesaw action in Gold continued until the end of the day. Xau surged above $2,037, but reversed and fell to $2,021, before bouncing back up to $2,035 by the end of the day.

The comments about peace negotiations in the Middle East helped improve the sentiment somewhat, which was the reason for the reversal in Gold and Oil. The economic data was light, but there were many comments from central bank officials, particularly the ECB, which kept the Euro bearish throughout the day.

EUR/USD dipped below 1.08 in the US session after comments on rate cuts, but reversed toward the close of the US session, after the Treasury released the Balance Sheet which was stronger than expected. Since October, decreasing rates have helped the Treasury achieve sustainability, while faster growth has increased tax revenues. This helped risk assets and US stock markets closed at record highs, however, the USD retreated lower, as is usually the case in such occasions.

Today starts with Australian Retail Sales for December which is anticipated to show a -2.0% decline after the +2.0% in the previous month. November witnessed a 2% jump after the mixed/soft numbers in the previous two months and a low annual growth rate of 2.2%. The jump in November sales though was somewhat due to higher spending during the ‘Black Friday’ and ‘Cyber-week’ sales periods. However, they are expected to post a -1.9% decline in December. The RBA is more concerned on underlying inflation indices, which are likely to decrease as well.

In the European session, we have a number of GDP releases from Europe, starting with Spanish Flash GDP QoQ, Italian Prelim GDP QoQ, German Prelim GDP QoQ, and ending with the Eurozone Prelim Flash GDP QoQ. They’re all expected to come in weaker than the previous reading apart from the Eurozone GDP which is expected to remain at -0.1% in Q4 of 2023.

JOLTS job openings in the United States have been on a declining trend, however, they jumped to 8.790 million in November. But they are expected to dip to 8.750 million in December. This employment metric has slowed since its high in 2022, despite the labor market improving again recently. The October report shocked on the downside, with both hiring and resignation rates dipping below pre-pandemic levels.

The Conference Board Consumer COnfidecne report will close the day in terms of economic releases. Consumer confidence in the United States fell gradually in the fourth quarter due to a softening labor market, but it unexpectedly rose in December to levels not seen since July. The consensus expects the indicator to rise to 115.0 points in January from 110.7 points in December.

ETHEREUM has also been negative, sliding from above $2,700 following the debut of BTC ETFs, although the general trend remains favorable because it has not yet reached lower lows. The price fell below the 20 daily SMA (gray) yesterday, but it remains above the 50 SMA (yellow), which serves as the final support indicator during deeper pullbacks like this one. We are attempting to build another long-term buy ETH signal near the 50 SMA, but we will see how the price movement unfolds.

• ETH Buy Signal
• Entry Price: $2,290
• Stop Loss: $2,590
• Take Profit: $1,750