Quick overview
- Investor focus is on corporate earnings and macro developments, with the US dollar strengthening after a new trade deal with the EU.
- The trade agreement alleviates fears of a transatlantic trade war, leading to increased demand for the US dollar and improved investor sentiment.
- Key earnings reports from major companies are expected today, providing insights into corporate America’s performance amid economic uncertainties.
- Bitcoin and Ethereum show signs of recovery, with Bitcoin rebounding above $120,000 and Ethereum approaching the $4,000 mark amid positive market sentiment.
Live BTC/USD Chart
BTC/USD
Investor attention is fixed on today’s slew of corporate earnings, macro developments, and the resurgent US dollar following a landmark transatlantic trade deal.
Dollar Strengthens as Trade Tensions Ease
The US dollar climbed sharply against major global currencies following a new trade agreement between the European Union and the United States. The deal, which eliminates fears of an all-out transatlantic trade war, includes EU commitments to purchase $750 billion in American energy and defense goods. In return, a 15% base tariff will be imposed on key European exports like autos, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals.
Investor sentiment toward the US economy improved markedly, driving up dollar demand as global capital flowed into American assets seeking yield and safety. With a 1.31% rise against the euro, 0.75% against the Aussie and Kiwi, and 1.08% against the Swiss franc, the greenback outperformed broadly.
Market Response and Federal Reserve Watch
Despite President Trump’s call for rates to be slashed to 1%, the Federal Reserve is expected to retain some room for modest cuts when it meets this week, even as the European Central Bank has already acted. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 pushed to fresh highs, reflecting renewed investor confidence, while the Dow slightly retreated from record levels.
Key Market Events Today
Tariff Truce Talks Resume in Stockholm
Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng meets with US Treasury Secretary Bessent in Stockholm to discuss extending the 90-day tariff truce that expires August 12. Without a deal, tariffs could snap back to 125% on Chinese exports and 145% on American goods. Bessent emphasized the need for China to curb industrial overcapacity and boost domestic demand.
Besides that, a wide range of companies across sectors report earnings today, giving Wall Street a better grasp of how corporate America is faring amid inflation concerns, shifting consumption patterns, and monetary policy uncertainty.
Summary of Q2 Earnings Reports – July 24
🟢 Before the Bell:
These companies report before market open, with attention on key sectors like healthcare, logistics, consumer goods, and tech:
- UnitedHealth Group (UNH): Watch for growth in Medicare Advantage and Optum revenue.
- PayPal (PYPL): Digital payments slowdown and margins under scrutiny.
- Boeing (BA): All eyes on cash flow and production delays after recent safety issues.
- UPS (UPS): Expected to reflect global shipping softness and labor cost pressures.
- Spotify (SPOT): Market looking at profitability trends and paid user growth.
- Merck (MRK): Driven by continued strength in Keytruda and its vaccine pipeline.
- Procter & Gamble (PG): Results should reflect consumer resilience in personal care and household products
🔴 After the Bell:
These companies report after market close, with several heavyweights in travel, dining, finance, and hardware:
- Visa (V): Strong cross-border travel spending likely to support results.
- Starbucks (SBUX): Under pressure from slowing China sales and U.S. consumer belt-tightening.
- Seagate Technology (STX): Investors look for signs of bottoming in storage demand and AI-related optimism.
- Booking Holdings (BKNG): Strong summer travel demand likely to lift Q2 results.
- The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE): Same-store sales and inflationary pressure updates expected.
- Whirlpool (WHR): Sluggish home appliance demand likely to weigh on earnings.
Last week, markets were slower than what we’ve seen in recent months, with gold retreating and then bouncing to finish the week unchanged. EUR/USD slipped toward 1.16, while S&P and Nasdaq continued higher. The moves weren’t too big though, and we opened 35 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 23 winning signals and 12 losing ones.
Gold Returns Below $3,400
Gold rebounded off its 20-week moving average near $3,150, climbing nearly $50 to finish around $3,438/oz. Still, after failing to hold above $3,400 post-U.S.-Japan trade talks, gold appears stuck in a consolidation phase below the $3,500 resistance. Traders await fresh inflation clues or remarks from the Fed to trigger the next move.
USD/JPY Returns Below the 100 Weekly SMA After Japanese Elections
USD/JPY Breakout Challenges BoJ Forecasts
The U.S. dollar surged past the 148 yen threshold, surprising many who expected further yen strength. This rally also took the pair above the 100-week moving average, a significant technical barrier often viewed as a long-term resistance level.
Fueling the move is a wave of Japanese capital seeking returns abroad, which is complicating the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook. If the pair manages to close the week firmly above this level, it could reinforce sentiment in favor of the dollar and reignite discussions around the policy gap between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.
USD/JPY – Weekly Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Rebounds Strongly After Brief Breakdown
Bitcoin momentarily slipped under $113,000 earlier in the week but quickly reversed course, bouncing back above $120,000 with notable force. The dip triggered strong buying interest as the cryptocurrency tested its 50-day moving average, while further support held at the 20-week SMA.
Market participants appear to be treating these pullbacks as opportunities to reenter, especially amid ongoing uncertainty in traditional markets. Bitcoin’s recovery suggests continued appetite for digital hedges in times of macro volatility.
BTC/USD – Weekly chart
Ethereum Inches Closer to $4,000
Ethereum has recently outshone Bitcoin, rising 20% since April and breaking decisively above its 100-week moving average. The rally is being fueled by growing optimism over the upcoming “Pectra” upgrade, which is expected to significantly improve Ethereum’s scalability and transaction efficiency.
This upgrade has caught institutional attention, with increased inflows supporting the bullish momentum. Now targeting the $4,000 level, Ethereum is regaining favor as a high-conviction bet in the crypto space.
ETH/USD – Daily Chart
Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank’s local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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