Quick overview
- Gold prices surged to a new high of $3,976 per ounce, facing a critical test at the $4,000 mark amid concerns of overbought conditions.
- Japan’s Nikkei index soared while the yen weakened sharply following political changes, raising concerns about fiscal discipline and potential further yen depreciation.
- U.S. tech stocks experienced significant gains, with AMD’s stock rising 35% intraday due to a partnership with OpenAI, while Tesla rebounded ahead of a major event.
- Traders should prepare for heightened volatility in major currency pairs as key economic data releases are expected to influence market expectations.
Live BTC/USD Chart
BTC/USD
Gold and BTC traders face a data-heavy session that could spark volatility, as fresh insights into trade flows, industrial activity, and energy trends emerge from multiple economies.
Markets See Dramatic Moves as Gold Hits New High, Yen Tumbles, and Tech Stocks Rally
Global markets started the week on a high note with record-breaking commodity moves, sharp currency shifts, and notable equity swings shaping Monday’s trade.
Gold’s Record-Breaking Surge Faces $4,000 Test
Gold began the week with an extraordinary rally, breaking records as it climbed steadily from the Asian session into North American trading. Prices surged to a new high of $3,976 per ounce, extending an impressive six-week climb from $3,350.
The rally now faces a crucial technical hurdle at the $4,000 mark, as momentum indicators suggest the metal is becoming increasingly overbought. Traders will be watching closely to see if gold can consolidate above this milestone or if a pullback emerges after such a strong run.
Nikkei Soars While Yen Weakens Sharply
In equity and currency markets, Japan’s Nikkei index surged again, driven by political and monetary developments. The yen weakened sharply following the Liberal Democratic Party’s selection of Sanae Takaichi as Japan’s new prime minister, prompting a dovish response from the Bank of Japan and sparking fresh concerns about fiscal discipline.
The yen’s slide was swift and dramatic: USD/JPY jumped nearly 300 pips to reach its highest level since late July, while EUR/JPY broke above its 2024 peak to hit levels unseen since 1992. Investors are now eyeing the possibility of a new leg of yen weakness as Japan navigates this political and monetary shift.
Tech Stocks Power U.S. Equity Gains
U.S. equities saw standout moves in the technology sector. AMD’s stock surged as much as 35% intraday after news of a partnership with OpenAI to build new data centers, before closing the day 23% higher. If successful, the deal could see OpenAI acquiring up to 10% of the chipmaker, adding to optimism around AMD’s future growth prospects.
Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) rebounded 5.5%, buoyed by anticipation surrounding a planned November 7 event, widely expected to unveil a new vehicle model. In contrast, Starbucks and telecom stocks lagged, posting declines amid sector rotation.
Political Spotlight: Trump-Carney Meeting in Focus
Markets are also turning attention to a high-profile meeting in North America between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Canadian Finance Minister Mark Carney, as Canada looks to negotiate a reduction in tariffs. However, with Trump announcing new tariffs on medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, the discussions may face significant challenges.
Key Forex Events to Watch Today
With key releases spanning energy, trade, and manufacturing sectors, Tuesday’s calendar sets the stage for potentially sharp moves in major currency pairs. Traders should be prepared for heightened volatility, especially in the USD, EUR, CAD, and CNY crosses, as fresh data reshape expectations for global growth and central bank policy paths.
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)
- The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s STEO will be closely monitored for updates on oil demand and production forecasts. Shifts in these projections can influence crude prices and, by extension, energy-linked currencies such as the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian krone.
German Industrial Orders (August)
- Germany’s August industrial orders will provide a timely gauge of Europe’s manufacturing health. A weaker-than-expected print could weigh on the euro, reinforcing concerns about a slowdown in Europe’s largest economy.
U.S. International Trade Balance (August)
- The U.S. trade balance data is key for the dollar, as it offers insights into the strength of imports and exports amid shifting global demand. A wider deficit could raise questions about U.S. growth prospects and potentially temper the dollar’s recent gains.
Canadian Trade Balance (August)
- Canada’s trade balance figures will shed light on the country’s export resilience, especially in the context of weaker global commodity prices. A stronger surplus could lend support to the Canadian dollar, while a deficit might spark selling pressure.
Canadian Ivey PMI (September)
- The Ivey PMI will be watched as an indicator of overall business activity in Canada. A stronger reading may boost the loonie by signaling robust domestic demand, while a softer figure could stoke concerns about slowing economic momentum.
Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)
- China’s FX reserves will be critical for sentiment toward the yuan and broader emerging-market currencies. Any unexpected decline might spark speculation about Beijing’s currency defense measures or capital outflows, adding volatility to Asian forex trading.
Last week, markets were quite volatile again, with gold soaring to $3,6065. EUR/USD continued the pullback move toward 1.1450, while main indices closed higher again. The moves weren’t too big though, and we opened 35 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 23 winning signals and 12 losing ones.
Gold One Step Closer to $4,000
Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate decrease as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. Earlier this week, gold jumped beyond $3,700 and reached $3,707.42 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease to 4.25%. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $3,627, a $80 decline from the new all-time high. As traders locked in profits after the rally driven by dovish predictions, there was a sudden fall but buyers returned on Friday pushing the price $60 higher. Yesterday buyers continued to push and XAU reached another record high at $3,976 but retreated lower later to slip below $3,820, although buyers came back and we saw a rebound late in the US session.
USD/JPY Tests the Top of the Range After the New BOJ Governor
Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. The move underscored persistent volatility as traders weighed Japan’s intervention risks against evolving Fed expectations.
USD/JPY – Weekly Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Soars above $126K
Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down to $113,000 before recovering above $116,000 last week, however sellers returned and sent BTC below $110,000, breaking the 20 weekly SMA (gray) as well but we have seen a strong rebound this week, sending the price above $126K.
BTC/USD – Weekly chart
Ethereum Heads for $5,000
Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. However buying resumed and on Sunday ETH/USD printed another record at $4,941 but we saw a retreat which sent ETH below $4,000. Yet buyers are back and now ETH is heading for $4,500.
ETH/USD – Weekly Chart
Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank’s local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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