FOREX-US dollar gains; shrugging off inflation, jobless claims as euro slips

* Euro falls after inflation data * Dollar rises, but set for weakest month in a year * U.S. inflation moderates in October * Yen back from the brink; strongest month in 2023 * Month-end activity muddles FX action (Recasts; adds new comment, details, monthly milestones, bullets; updates prices) By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, Nov 30 (Reuters) – The dollar gained on Thursday as investors took profits on bets it would weaken further and it shrugged off data showing signs of a slowing U.S. economy that suggested the Federal Reserve may be done raising interest rates. Euro weakness after a soft euro zone inflation report also partly helped boost the greenback, analysts said. The dollar index, which measures its value against six major currencies, rose 0.5% to 103.38 and was on track to post its best daily gain in more than a month. On a monthly basis, the dollar has posted losses of 3%, on pace for its worst monthly showing in a year. Some analysts said the dollar may have benefited from month-end demand, as investors squared up positions for November, a period that featured a sharp sell-off in the U.S. currency with the market pricing in rate cuts next year. Others, however, expected a dollar sell-off at month-end, given how equities posted sharp gains for November. There were sell dollar signals at some of the biggest U.S. banks, analysts said. “We were expecting dollar selling at month-end given how much U.S. equities rallied. That typically means foreign asset managers would have sold dollars forward,” said Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist, at UBS in New York. “But it’s possible that some of the selling happened earlier in the month. So maybe there’s less dollar selling at month end.” Dollar gains persisted despite reports that showed U.S. inflation continued to moderate in October and jobless claims rose in the latest week suggesting a slowing labor market. Inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index was unchanged in October after climbing 0.4% in September. In the 12 months through October, the PCE price index increased 3.0%. That was the smallest year-on-year gain since March 2021 and followed a 3.4% advance in September. Meanwhile, initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 7,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 218,000 for the week ended Nov. 25. Economists had forecast 226,000 claims. In other currencies, the euro fell after euro zone inflation eased by more than forecast this month, fuelling bets of early European Central Bank rate cuts. Consumer price growth in the 20 countries that share the euro currency dropped to 2.4% in November from 2.9% in October, well below expectations for a fall to 2.7%. The euro last changed hands at $1.0897 against the dollar, down 0.7%. It is still poised to show a monthly gain of 3%, the largest since November 2022. Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.6% to 148.12 yen. For November, the greenback was down 2.4%, on pace for its largest monthly fall since December last year. “The broader picture is that the dollar has weakened quite substantially in November. It’s still probably a two-way risk from here in terms of the Fed December meeting,” Serebriakov of UBS said. “The U.S. data hasn’t slowed significantly. Inflation has but activity data remains relatively resilient,” he added. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 1:29PM (1829 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Dollar index 103.4000 102.8200 +0.57% -0.087% +103.5800 +102.7100 Euro/Dollar $1.0898 $1.0969 -0.65% +1.71% +$1.0984 +$1.0888 Dollar/Yen 148.0400 147.2400 +0.55% +12.92% +148.5000 +146.8500 Euro/Yen 161.34 161.51 -0.11% +15.00% +161.9400 +160.6000 Dollar/Swiss 0.8743 0.8737 +0.09% -5.43% +0.8770 +0.8681 Sterling/Dollar $1.2634 $1.2695 -0.48% +4.47% +$1.2710 +$1.2604 Dollar/Canadian 1.3574 1.3589 -0.10% +0.19% +1.3626 +1.3553 Aussie/Dollar $0.6611 $0.6617 -0.07% -3.00% +$0.6650 +$0.6571 Euro/Swiss 0.9528 0.9585 -0.59% -3.71% +0.9590 +0.9474 Euro/Sterling 0.8623 0.8640 -0.20% -2.50% +0.8649 +0.8615 NZ $0.6160 $0.6156 +0.11% -2.94% +$0.6182 +$0.6123 Dollar/Dollar Dollar/Norway 10.7730 10.6310 +1.42% +9.86% +10.7970 +10.6690 Euro/Norway 11.7431 11.6879 +0.47% +11.86% +11.7848 +11.6717 Dollar/Sweden 10.4648 10.3624 +0.42% +0.55% +10.5397 +10.3450 Euro/Sweden 11.4032 11.3560 +0.42% +2.27% +11.4840 +11.3576 (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise and Alexander Smith)