ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: NZ inflation stays well above target

• Federal Reserve’s Beige Book due today, plus Mester and Bowman
• European Central Bank speakers today include Schnabel (twice), Cipollone and de Cos
• RBNZ’s own inflation measure for Q1 2024 is +4.3% y/y (vs. prior +4.7%)
• HSBC Brent crude oil forecasts remain at $82.5 per barrel for 2024, $76.50 for 2025
• Deutsche Bank hiked their forecast for gold as high as $2,600
• Bank of England Governor Bailey, along with MPC members Greene and Haskel speak today
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1025 (vs. estimate at 7.2404)
• Singapore Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX) (March) -8.4% m/m (expected +4.5%)
• Japan March exports +7.3% y/y (expected +7.0%)
• Bank of Korea Gov Rhee says ready to deploy measures to counter excessive FX moves
• South Korea & Japan have both expressed serious concerns on their depreciating currencies
• New Zealand CPI response: ASB forecast first RBNZ rate cut in February 2025, from Nov 2024
• US will impose new sanctions targeting Iran, including its missile and drone program
• Reuters April Tankan: Manufacturer’s Index fell to +9, from +10 in March
• New Zealand Q1 CPI comes in at +4.0% y/y (vs. 4.0% expected)
• ICYMI – Deutsche Bank forecast 3 European Central Bank rate cuts in 2024
• New Zealand Q1 2024 CPI expected higher q/q than in final quarter of last year – preview
• Have expectations for the FOMC swung too far away from rate cuts this year?
• Analyst: US federal spending the biggest threat to disinflation & lower Fed interest rates
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 16 Apr: Central banker comments on policy diverge.
• Oil – private survey of inventory shows headline crude oil build much larger than expected
• Trade ideas thread – Wednesday, 17 April, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
• US major stock indices close mixed

New
Zealand Q1 2024 CPI data was the focus of the data calendar, it came
in line with expectations for both q/q and y/y. In the details
though was the still sticky high non-tradeable inflation rate, at
+1.6% q/q and +5.8% y/y. This indicates the Reserve Bank of New
Zealand will not be cutting its cash rate any time soon, indeed at
least one bank analyst team have pushed back their first rate cut
call from November to February next year.

NZD/USD
had moved higher on the day, a move joined by EUR, AUD, GBP and CAD,
to various degrees. The USD didn’t weaken much against the hapless
yen, nor the CHF though.

From
Japan we had trade data for March. Exports grew for the third
consecutive month and hit a record high. The weak yen does have some
positives. In contrast, Singapore Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX)
fell away in March. The fall was blamed on declines in
non-electronics exports, including pharmaceuticals. Exports fell to
Singapore’s top markets, including the US, the EU, and Japan.
Exports to China, Hong Kong and Taiwan grew.

Japanese
and South Korean Finance Ministers jointly stated their
concerns over their weak currencies against the USD. Bank
of Korea Governor Rhee joined the chorus and said recent FX moves
were excessive and the Bank stands ready to deploy measures to
stabilize if volatility continues. In contrast, the Governor of the
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (the central bank of the Philippines) was
more clear-eyed, pointing firmly to the strong USD as the main weight
on the Philippine peso (PHP).

Gold took a break: