ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: NZD opens and pops higher after weekend election

• Fed’s Harker speaks Monday on his economic outlook
• China’s foreign minister Wang Yi meets Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov
• A number of risk advisory investigation firms are closing Hong Kong offices
• 5 hour ceasefire to allow foreigners to exit, & humanitarian aid to enter, Gaza via Egypt
• ECB’s de Cos speaks Monday
• Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks today – finely balanced again?
• Former Bank of China chairman arrested
• Crypto, stop “bitches & moans about regulation”, needed because of “criminals & scumbags”
• TD on oil – don’t see a material surge above $100/bbl – but watch for MidEast escalation
• People’s Bank of China set MLF rate at 2.5% (expected 2.5%, prior 2.5%)
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1798 (vs. estimate at 7.3121)
• OIL – TD says Iran getting involved in Gaza is a ‘tail event’ risk, a worse case scenario
• ICYMI, former Fed Bullard: investors too complacent on inflation, FOMC might go to 6.5%
• Chinese financial press says that researchers see more RRR, rate cuts, this year
• RBA says tokenised money could help save billions in costs in domestic financial markets
• UK data – Rightmove House Price Index for October: -0.8% y/y (prior -0.4%)
• Weekend – PBOC Governor Pan promised to provide more substantial support to real economy
• Centrists parties look to have won government in Poland
• BoE Gov Bailey: the usual transmission mechanism not yet being demonstrated on wages
• JP Morgan CEO Dimon: “This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades”
• BoA says the Federal Reserve and US government should “stop playing Superman”
• US’ Kirby won’t rule out sending troops to rescue Gaza hostages
• New Zealand Services PMI for September 50.7 (prior 47.1)
• The US and Israel are discussing a potential visit of US President Biden to Israel
• Palestinian Authority President said actions of Hamas don’t represent Palestinian people
• Iran’s UN mission reportedly says its armed forces will not engage Israel if not attacked
• ECB Lagarde – underlying inflation is still strong, wage growth is “historically high”
• NZD/USD pop on New Zealand election results sets up a short fade – levels to target
• Trade ideas thread – Monday, 16 October 2023
• Iran says it will “not remain an observer” on Gaza
• Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 16 October 2023 – small NZD pop
• New Zealand shifts right as Christopher Luxon named prime minister
• Weekly Market Outlook (16-20 October)
• IMF: Yen’s recent declines are driven by fundamentals, criteria not met for intervention
• Newsquawk Week Ahead: US retail sales, China activity data, PBoC, NZ, UK and Canada CPI

NZD/USD
opened a little higher on Monday after the election over the weekend
resulted in a change of government, as expected. Christopher Luxon
led the centre-right party to the win, with 39% of the vote. The
opposition Labour party clinched 27%. Luxon will govern with the
support of minor parties.

NZD/USD
has traded up from its late Friday level around 0.5885 to a high just
over 0.5925. AUD/USD was dragged up a little also.

USD/JPY
is not a lot changed on the session, circa 149.49 as I post.

EUR/USD
and GBP/USD are up a little on the session with no news of impact for
these.

From
China we once again got a heavy USD/CNY reference rate setting, and
once again on the 7.17 big figure and around 1300 points lower than
the modelled estimate.

Also
from China today was this month’s Medium-term Lending Facility
(MLF), with the largest net injection since December 2020 at an
unchanged rate of 2.5% (2.5% was expected).

Markets
remain on tenterhooks watching Middle East developments. There was
mixed messaging from Iran over Israel’s imminent ground incursion
into Gaza. As
I post the news is crossing of a 5 hour humanitarian ceasefire to
allow foreigners to exit and humanitarian aid to enter Gaza via the
Egypt border. Its to begin at 9am local through to 2pm.

Oil didn’t do a lot here: