ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Ranges subdued by widespread holidays in Asia

• US inflation report coming up on Friday when markets will be closed – ranges to watch
• Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks Friday, San Francisco Fed’s Daly also
• China Vanke says its objective is to cut interest bearing debt by 100bn yuan in next 2 yrs
• Japan’s industry minister says to extend fuel subsidies for a “certain period”
• Japan finance minister Suzuki says speculative moves may be behind JPY weakness
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0950 (vs. estimate at 7.2259)
• USD/JPY update – lower (in a small range) after Suzuki’s verbal intervention
• Japan finance minister Suzuki says rapid FX moves are undesirable, speculative moves seen
• Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida will appear in parliament from 10am Tokyo time
• Japan February Retail Sales +4.6% y/y (vs. +3.0% expected)
• Japan data – February preliminary Industrial Production -0.1% m/m (expected +1.4%)
• Japan February unemployment rate 2.6% (expected 2.4%, prior 2.4% also)
• Tokyo area March inflation data: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 2.6%)
• Analyst says the Bank of Japan is “very, very close” to intervening in JPY
• JP Morgan analyst warns on stock flash crash – ” might come one day out of the blue”
• Japan’s CEOs less upbeat on the economy, cautious ahead of wage hikes kicking in
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 28 Mar: The quarter comes to an end.Stocks, yields. USD up
• ICYMI: Japan PM Kishida says its appropriate for the BOJ to maintain easy monetary policy
• Economic calendar in Asia for Good Friday, 28 March 2024 – big day for Japanese inflation!
• Asia time zone holidays today – who’s in and who’s out on Good Friday 2024
• Trade ideas thread – Thursday, 28 March 2024, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Core
consumer price index (CPI) in Tokyo, used as an early indicator of
nationwide figures due in around three weeks, rose 2.4% in March from
a year earlier, matching a median market estimate and slowing
slightly from a 2.5% gain in February. The other core measure,
referred to as core-core that excludes fresh food and energy costs,
and is interpreted as a broader price trend indicator, also slowed,
coming in at 2.9% in March from 3.1% in February. Despite
the slowing both
are still well
above the Bank
of Japan 2% target rate.

Separate
data on Japanese factory output showed a
fall vs the
rise expected.

If
there is encouragement to be taken from today’s Japan data it was found
in retail sales, these beat median forecasts and rose for a 24th
consecutive month. Put
above-target inflation together with better retail sales and the BOJ
stays on a tightening course, though its expected to be slow.

USD/JPY
responded by inching just a little higher. It had barely added 10 or
so tics in more than hour when Japan’s finance minister Suzuki
weighed in with regular verbal intervention. The rhetoric
from Suzuki and other officials has been taken up
to a more
forthright level. Suzuki today included mentions of:

• rapid
  FX moves
• speculative moves
• won’t rule out any steps to
  respond to disorderly FX

USD/JPY
backed off from its earlier high.

In
other major FX moves were also subdued. We are heading towards the
next session with holidays in the UK and Europe. It’s a holiday
today also in the US and Canada, although we have Powell speaking and
inflation data released.