ForexLive European FX news wrap: Euro dips as ECB rate cut bets heat up

Headlines:

Markets:

• USD leads, EUR lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.3%
• US 10-year yields up 2.3 bps to 4.293%
• Gold down 0.3% to $2,038.08
• WTI crude up 0.8% to $78.47
• Bitcoin up 0.3% to $37,841

The session started off with the dollar looking vulnerable once again with USD/JPY hovering around 146.90. But the focus turned quickly towards the euro as the French economy contracted in Q3 upon a revised report alongside a softer inflation reading. That saw markets step up ECB rate cut bets for next year, bringing forward the timeline to April.

The single currency fell as a result with EUR/USD initially dropping from 1.0975 to 1.0950 before extending losses to 1.0910 as the dollar kept more resilient. Of note, the pair is now trading back under both its 100 and 200-hour moving averages of 1.0959 and 1.0938 respectively. That is seeing the near-term bias now shift to being more bearish.

As that happened, the dollar also gained further ground with USD/JPY rebounding back to 147.70 before settling around 147.50 levels now – up 0.2% on the day. The commodity currencies were sitting higher earlier against the dollar but also saw gains dissipate with AUD/USD falling from 0.6640 to 0.6600 and NZD/USD down from 0.6180 to 0.6150 currently.

In the equities space, it was a bit of a tricky one as stocks pared early gains right at the open in Europe before gaining back some ground with US futures pushing higher now ahead of month-end. European indices are up roughly 0.5% to 0.7% as investors look to round off November trading with yet another winning week.

In other markets, bond yields were initially pulled lower after the softer French inflation report before bouncing back on the session. 10-year French bond yields are up 2.5 bps to 3.014% while 10-year Treasury yields are seen up 2.3 bps to 4.293% at the moment.

As for commodities, oil was a notable mover on the session as it gained after reports that OPEC+ are looking for deeper production cuts. WTI crude jumped up by 2% to $79.60 before paring the advance to $78.40 levels now as it is said that a chunk of that will be just Saudi Arabia extending its ongoing 1 million bpd output cuts.