FX steady with eyes on Russia-Ukraine; S.African rand up before budget

Feb 23 (Reuters) – Most emerging market currencies climbed on Wednesday, though the rouble dipped following Russian troop movements near Ukraine and fresh Western sanctions on Moscow, and South Africa’s rand gained ahead of the presentation of the national budget.

The Russian rouble slipped 0.4%, paring gains from earlier in the session, after jumping 1.8% the previous day.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday recognised the separatist enclaves in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine which adjoin Russia, deepening Western fears of a major war in Europe by raising the prospect of a full-scale invasion beyond the breakaway areas.

The United States, the European Union, Britain, Australia, Canada and Japan responded with plans to target banks and elites while Germany froze a major gas pipeline project from Russia. read more

“Economic sanctions would affect energy supplies, at a time of already severe tension in oil and gas prices, and while diplomats remain at work, it is undeniable that tensions over Ukraine represent an additional element of volatility and downside risk for the economy and financial markets,” said Filippo Casagrande, head of insurance investment solutions at Generali Asset & Wealth Management.

However, an earlier onset of the monetary policy tightening cycle in several developing countries and higher commodity prices have boded well for emerging market currencies, while attractive valuations for many major stocks have attracted foreign investors.

MSCI’s index of emerging market stocks (.MSCIEF) added 0.3%, on Wednesday, and its currencies counterpart (.MIEM00000CUS) gained 0.2%.

Emerging market currencies have gained about 0.9% this year, compared with a near 10% decline in Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) so far in 2022.

“Many emerging markets have already faced very aggressive rate hike cycles by their central banks in recent months and quarters. This weighed heavily on performance seen in 2021, but now represents a relative strength,” Casagrande said.

South Africa’s rand strengthened 0.4%, eyeing its second consecutive day of gains, as investors will be watching for how the budget plans to most prudently allocate bumper tax receipts due to high commodity prices.

Turkey’s lira slipped 0.1%. The Turkish Central Bank’s net reserves rose towards $20 billion last week, according to four bankers’ calculations based on preliminary data, with forecasts ranging between increases of $2.5 to $4 billion. read more

South African pharmaceutical firm Adcock Ingram (AIPJ.J) rose 6.0% after it said its profits were up 30% for the six months ending in December.

Chinese shares closed higher after investors bought into the markets following a Ukraine crisis-led sell-off in the previous session. read more

For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance in 2022, see http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance in 2022, see https://tmsnrt.rs/2OusNdX

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Reporting by Anisha Sircar and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru, Editing by Timothy Heritage

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.