Earlier this week the US JOLTS job openings report offered a positive surprise as it jumped above 9 million again, beating expectations. As a result,
Earlier this week the US JOLTS job openings report offered a positive surprise as it jumped above 9 million again, beating expectations. As a result, the USD traded higher that day, while yesterday the ADP employment numbers were disappointing. Although the USD didn’t mind them too much.
The weekly initial unemployment claims came at 207K, beating expectations of to 210K. Claims have been coming below expectations continuously and they are approaching 200K. The persistently low number of claims contradicts yesterday’s soft ADP figures. With rates rising, the US currency is rising as well, and USD/CAD has pushed above the 1.37 resistance. We decided to open a buy forex signal here after the retreat to the 20 SMA (gray0 which seems to be holding.
US Treasury rates jumped further in response to the report, with the 10-year rising 3.6 basis points to 4.77% from 4.71% before the data. The bond selloff was exacerbated by. So far, currency movements have been less than the bond movements, which may suggest an overshoot in an unbalanced fixed-income market.
The Atlanta Fed will soon provide an update to its GDPNow prediction, which I expect will move beyond 5% from the current reading of 4.9%. Furthermore, a large number is becoming increasingly simple to believe. The US recorded a $58.3 billion trade deficit today, compared to the $62.3 billion predicted. This is the lowest deficit since the epidemic, and it will immediately flow into Q3 GDP.
US Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims
Initial jobless claims and continuing claims
- Initial jobless claims 207K versus 210K estimate
- Prior week jobless claims 204K were revised to 205K
- Initial jobless claims 207K vs 210K estimate
- The 4-week moving average initial jobless claims 208.75K vs. 211.0k last week revised to 211.25K
- Continuing claims 1.664 M vs 1.675M estimate.
- Prior week continuing claims 1.670M revised to 1.665M
- The 4-week MA of Continuing claims is at 1.668M a 5K decline from last week’s 1.673M
- The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending September 23 were in California (+2,712), Ohio (+1,422), Michigan (+1,282), Alabama (+870), and Missouri (+532),
- The largest decreases were in Georgia (-1,853), South Carolina (-1,199), New York (-1,149), Indiana (-705), and Florida (-485).
USD/CAD Live Chart
USD/CAD
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