Gold Prices Veer Off Bullish Path as US Dollar Firms but Outlook Still Upbeat

GOLD PRICES OUTLOOK:

• Gold prices retreat modestly heading into the weekend, undermined by U.S. dollar strength and rising U.S. yields
• Despite the precious metal’s subdued performance this week, the medium-term outlook remains constructive
• This article looks at key technical levels to watch on XAU/USD’s daily chart

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Gold was on the back foot on Friday, down about 0.2% to $2010, retreating for the third consecutive session, pressured by a rally in U.S. Treasury rates, coupled with U.S. dollar strength in the FX space, but losses were largely contained – a sign that bulls have no intention of bailing out just yet despite the metal’s subdued performance for most of the week.

The jump in yields coincided with the release of the University of Michigan U.S. Sentiment survey, which showed the gauge of consumer attitudes sinking to a six-month low of 57.7 in May, but the trigger for the bonds market may have been the rise in medium-term inflation expectations, with the 5-year indicator up to 3.2% from 3.0% previously.

UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN SENTIMENT DATA

Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar

Inflation expectations from the University of Michigan tend to be volatile, so this month’s results may not be cause for concern or fundamentally alter the Fed’s monetary policy outlook, especially after both CPI and PPI data for April revealed further easing in price pressures. Against this backdrop, the case for the FOMC to stop tightening at its June meeting remains strong.

Historically, once the Fed officially hits the pause button, nominal yields begin to slide along the curve over the following months. This could be bullish for gold, especially if rates reprice lower materially. With the U.S. economy headed for a possible recession later this year, it is not hard to foresee this scenario materializing, boosting precious metals along the way.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

While gold retains a bullish profile, a period of consolidation should not be ruled out following the massive rally already observed since early March. This means that prices could remain trapped in a narrow range until new evidence emerges to encourage further buying.

In terms of key tech thresholds to watch, the first support to watch lies near the psychological $2,000 level. While bulls are likely to defend this floor, a sustained drop below it could trigger a pullback toward $1,975. On a move lower, a deeper retrenchment toward $1,920 should not be ruled out.

In the event of a bullish turnaround, initial resistance appears at $2,050. If bulls manage to take out this ceiling, bulls may become emboldened to launch an attack on the 2023 highs.

GOLD PRICES TECHNICAL CHART

Gold Prices Chart Prepared Using TradingView