Gold (XAU/USD) Price Action Sidelined For Now as Multiple High Risk Events Near

Gold Price (XAU/USD) Analysis, Price, and Chart

• Risk events start today with US PMIs.
• Retail traders remain heavily long of gold.

A week packed full of high-importance economic releases, central bank meetings, and mega tech stock earnings, starts today with the release of the latest S&P Global PMIs at 14:45 UK time. While expectations for the US releases are little changed from last month, if they are anything like today’s Euro and UK sentiment numbers then they may be set to disappoint the market. German, UK, and Euro manufacturing, services, and composite numbers all missed market forecasts and accompanying commentary highlighted fears of slowing economic growth. Bad news when interest rates are set to be hiked by all three central banks in the coming days.

DailyFX Central Bank Calendar

As well as policy decisions from the Fed, the ECB, and the Band of Japan, there are a slew of economic releases this week that can move the market. For all market-moving data releases and events, see the DailyFX Economic Calendar

Fears of slowing economic growth are pushing global government bond yields lower. Traders are currently pricing in peak rates in the US and are lowering their expectations for the Euro Area and the UK. This backdrop should be supportive for a non-interest bearing such as gold, but this is not playing out at the moment as fears of stubbornly high inflation remain. The latest US Core PCE report, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, will be released at the end of this week and this will drive price action going into the weekend.

Gold is trading on either side of $1,960/oz. an area that has acted as both resistance and support in the past months. Today’s price action is limited and the 14-day Average True Range indicator shows gold’s volatility at a multi-month low. Last Thursday’s multi-week high at $1,987/oz. will act as short-term resistance, while the $1,932-$1,939/oz. zone will act as initial support.

Gold Daily Price Chart – July 24, 2023

Chart via TradingView

Retail Remain Long of Gold

Retail trader data shows 68.39% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.16 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 3.07% higher than yesterday and 0.23% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.31% higher than yesterday and 10.15% lower than last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias

What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.