Let's try to keep this short and simple. We're at the point now where the monthly readings in inflation will matter a lot more and if you want to look
Let’s try to keep this short and simple. We’re at the point now where the monthly readings in inflation will matter a lot more and if you want to look at annual figures, the core reading will be the one to watch. This is because base effects are at play, resulting in a sharp decline in headline annual inflation after the spike in oil prices in March last year due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
For the German inflation report today, headline annual inflation is expected to decline from 8.7% in February to 7.3% in March. However, the monthly reading is estimated to reflect a 0.7% increase in price pressures.
As such, it’s not going to give the ECB too much comfort as price pressures are still arguably a long way from reverting back towards the 2% price target. That especially since core inflation is still going to be very sticky in the months ahead.
As per the usual, the state readings will provide a glimpse of what to expect ahead of the national reading and the data points today might produce some modest moves in the session ahead.
0530 GMT – North Rhine Westphalia
0800 GMT – Brandenburg
0800 GMT – Hesse
0800 GMT – Bavaria
0800 GMT – Baden Wuerttemberg
0900 GMT – Saxony
1200 GMT – Germany national preliminary figures
Do note that the releases don’t exactly follow the schedule at times and may be released a little earlier or later.
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