Quick overview
- Micron Technology’s stock closed at $1,074.89, down 2.05% after a strong fiscal 2026 report showing revenue growth from $37 billion to $133 billion.
- Despite record earnings, the stock’s decline is attributed to profit-taking rather than disappointment in performance.
- Analysts predict a significant slowdown in revenue growth by fiscal 2028, raising concerns about the cyclical nature of the memory market.
- Micron’s near-term support is around $1,069–$1,072, with a critical psychological level at $1,000 if the pullback continues.
Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) closed Friday at $1,074.89, down 2.05% on the day after trading between $1,072.01 and $1,108.00. The sell-off follows a brief pullback that began last week after a blockbuster fourth-quarter fiscal statement. Shares slipped a little further after hours, closing at $1,069.18.
Record Fiscal 2026 Results Still Weren’t Enough to Satisfy the Market
The total fiscal 2026 result of Micron was quite extraordinary. Annual revenue rose by more than quadruple, to $133 billion from $37 billion a year ago, while net income climbed to about $85 billion from $8.5 billion a year earlier, nearly tenfold the previous rate.
Even with numbers like these, the stock’s reaction has remained fairly muted. This week’s drop seems to be more about profit taking after one of the best earnings reports in Micron’s history than a reflection of real disappointment.
The Overlooked Headwind: Where the Cycle Goes From Here
The more serious issue for investors is what will happen once the memory boom is over. While memory is still scarce, Micron has a lot of power to influence prices, but the memory market has always been cyclical and those good times won’t last long.
According to current consensus, revenues are expected to increase 107% in FY27. However, that growth rate is expected to fall to less than 8% in fiscal 2028. The dramatic drop in growth suggests that analysts believe the current supply-demand imbalance will be resolved within the next two years or so.
Valuation Looks Cheap, But the Paradox Cuts Both Ways
On the surface, Micron’s forward P/E is about 15x, which seems like a cheap valuation considering it is currently reporting margins this high. Recently, Gross margins were reported at approximately 87%.
The issue is that Micron’s low valuation is at least partially due to the cyclical nature of the memory business. If the historical boom-and-bust pattern returns and profits fall by as much as 90% during the next downturn, today’s valuation would look very different. The effective P/E may approach 150x, as the current high valuation is very sensitive to the earnings power of this company in the future.
One of the biggest discussions for investors coming into 2027 is likely to be the disparity between Micron’s current financial situations and the industry’s history of sharp cycles.
Analyst Targets and What to Watch Next
From a technical perspective, MU remains well above the psychological $1,000 level despite this week’s pullback. Friday’s trading range of $1,072 to $1,108 remains below the stock’s 52-week high of $1,255.00 but is still far above its 52-week low of $179.61.
Near-term resistance is around $1,108, which marks this week’s high. A break above that level could put the $1,255 52-week high back in focus. The downside is around $1,069–$1,072, which is close to the Friday after-hours and intraday lows, and $1,000 is the more significant psychological level if the pullback continues.
Wall Street is generally positive on Micron’s short-term fundamentals but growing increasingly concerned about the slowdown in fiscal 2028. The next big catalyst for MU will probably be whether tight DRAM and NAND supply extends beyond current forecasts.
FAQs
- What is Micron stock’s key support level?
MU has near-term support around $1,069–$1,072, while the $1,000 level is the more important psychological support if the pullback continues. - Can Micron stock reach $1,255 again?
A move above the $1,108 resistance level could reopen the path toward Micron’s 52-week high of $1,255, although the expected slowdown in fiscal 2028 remains a key risk.
Bottom Line
Micron’s record fiscal 2026 results show how strong the current memory cycle has become, but investors are already looking ahead to the expected 2028 slowdown. MU’s ability to sustain tight DRAM and NAND supply will be critical to the next leg higher.
Arslan Ali Butt
Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)
Arslan Ali Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.
His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.
His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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