Morgan Stanley analyst says the chance of a Q4 S&P 500 rally has fallen considerably

Last week I posted on Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson:

In a fresh note to open the week, Wilson maintained he sees downside, not upside for the US benchmark index:

• likelihood of a Q4 rally has “fallen considerably” over the past month … “Narrowing breadth, cautious factor leadership, falling earnings revisions and fading consumer and business confidence tell a different story than the consensus, which sees a rally into year-end”
• initial bullish sentiments waned in September
• but did pick up again in October on expectations of better third-quarter earnings and seasonal strength into the year-end

Says his 3900 target remains.