Natural Gas Price Forecast: Surge Above $1.83 Signals Bullish Momentum

Natural gas prices have maintained an upward trend, surging back above $1.80, indicating a bullish market. This rise can be attributed to various factors, including concerns over supply disruptions in Europe, leading to increased demand for natural gas.

Norwegian gas flow has faced hiccups due to unplanned maintenance, putting pressure on European gas markets. This disruption has raised doubts about Europe’s ability to restock its reserves ahead of the next heating season.

Furthermore, the ongoing tensions between countries, particularly with Russia, have increased, making the market more unpredictable. Vladimir Putin’s reelection as Russia’s President has heightened concerns about potential issues with gas supply to Europe and Ukraine.

Besides this, attacks on Russian facilities by Ukraine have exacerbated the situation. These factors combined have pushed natural gas prices higher, reflecting widespread worries and uncertainty about future market developments.

As mentioned earlier, European gas prices are under pressure due to issues with the flow of gas from Norway. Gassco AS, the company responsible for Norway’s gas network, reported unplanned maintenance at the Aasta Hansteen gas field.

This maintenance will result in reduced gas availability until March 25th, with a decrease of 7.2 thousand cubic meters per day. These developments contribute to concerns about the fragility of Europe’s gas market.

Furthermore, Europe is anticipating colder weather next week, which could further deplete its gas reserves. These supply challenges in the European gas market are impacting global gas prices, leading to recent increases.

On the other side, Vladimir Putin being elected again as Russia’s President has made tensions between countries worse. This has affected natural gas prices. People are worried that for the next six years, there might be more problems between countries, especially with gas supply.

If Russia stops supplying gas to Europe and Ukraine, it could mess up the global energy market and make prices go even higher.

Also, Ukraine attacking Russian facilities has made things even more uncertain. Because tensions between countries are still high, people are being careful, and that is making gas prices keep going up.

Natural gas demand in Asia has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, signalling increased global consumption. However, the countries like India are projected to surpass their pre-pandemic gas demand, with the commissioning of new plants in the coming years.

This surge in demand from Asia, coupled with reduced production at facilities like the US Freeport facility in Texas, has tightened the global natural gas market. As Asian demand continues to grow, competition for natural gas resources intensifies, exerting upward pressure on prices.

Natural Gas (NG) experienced an uptick, rising by 0.88% to $1.834, marking a positive shift in its trading dynamics as it crossed the pivotal point of $1.78390.

This ascent situates NG above critical technical junctures, projecting a bullish sentiment with immediate resistance levels charted at $1.85210, $1.90380, and $1.95170. These thresholds will test the commodity’s upward trajectory.

Conversely, NG finds substantial support at $1.72510, with further cushions at $1.66160 and $1.60890, delineating zones where potential declines could stabilize. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55 and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.824 corroborate a moderately bullish outlook.

The symmetrical triangle pattern observed, highlighting resistance around $1.8520 and support near $1.7840, suggests a consolidation phase that could precede a decisive market move.

Thus, NG’s market behaviour remains favourably bullish above the $1.78390 pivot, indicating the potential for further gains, whereas a breach below this level could signal a trend reversal.