Ready on OPEC+ for Additional Steering

Canadian Greenback Value, Information, and Evaluation:

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USD/CAD continues its longer-term downtrend with the Loonie one in all solely a handful of currencies in a position to higher a resurgent US greenback. The year-long sell-off from the mid1.40s is beginning to decelerate with the pair now in the course of a four-month vary between 1.2360 and 1.2950 and it’ll require a powerful driver to interrupt out of this zone within the short- to medium-term.

This week’s OPEC+ assembly is predicted to see present output ranges left untouched because of the ongoing unfold of covid-19 and the knock-on impact on the worldwide economic system. On Thursday, OPEC+ revised down oil demand estimates from 5.9 million bpd to five.6 million bpd, noting ‘a rising variety of confirmed Covid-19 infections globally’ with lockdown measures elevated and reimposed ’in lots of areas’. OPEC will look to additional run down oil provides earlier than the following assembly in Might, giving the cartel time to see the effectiveness of the brand new pandemic measures. This could anchor the value of oil for the following month, bolstering the Canadian greenback.

Within the short-term, USD/CAD will probably be seeking to escape of a 20- and 50-day sma pincer motion with the pair caught between the 2 for the final week. The 20-dsma is presently performing as assist round 1.2534 whereas the 50-dsma is at 1.2621, leaving the pair caught in a slim vary. The downtrend presently stays in place with a lot of decrease highs on the chart since early 2020, whereas a break beneath 1.2365 is required to make a brand new decrease low to substantiate ongoing weak point.

Transferring Averages (MA) Defined for Merchants

USD/CAD Every day Value Chart

IG Retail dealer information present 56.48% of merchants are net-long with the ratio of merchants lengthy to quick at 1.30 to 1. We usually take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the actual fact merchants are net-long suggests USD/CAD costs might proceed to fall.But merchants are much less net-long than yesterday and in contrast with final week. Current adjustments in sentiment warn that the present USD/CAD value pattern might quickly reverse increased regardless of the actual fact merchants stay net-long.

What’s your view on USD/CAD – bullish or bearish?? You may tell us by way of the shape on the finish of this piece or you’ll be able to contact the creator by way of Twitter @nickcawley1.