Russia’s gas ‘blackmail’ one to watch in the days ahead

Anyone up for some Russian poker?

It may not be the biggest of headlines just yet but the developments here is something to be wary about. Russia’s Gazprom has told Poland and Bulgaria that it will halt gas supplies from today, marking the first step in which Russia is being serious about cutting off Europe at the knees.

In essence, Poland and Bulgaria are but warning shots. The former has been vocal in its opposition against Moscow so it isn’t anything new but dragging Bulgaria into this is a signal that Russia means business. They aren’t the biggest of names but for some context, Bulgaria is pretty much completely gas reliant (90%) on Russia.

Adam had a great post yesterday outlining some scenarios for how this may play out here.

It is really going to be interesting to see which party will fold at the end of the day. But the longer this carries on, the stakes are ever higher and the pinch on Europe’s economy is one that will be rather painful – as much as it also hurts Russia.