A have a look at implied volatility USDJPY has seen good movement, and benefiting from Trump
A have a look at implied volatility
USDJPY
has seen good movement, and benefiting from Trump speaking up proceedings with China
and we see the pair holding the 108-level, whereas USDTRY has additionally had good
curiosity, though merchants are loath to be lengthy for any nice time frame
given the price of carry.
There
is so much to play for nonetheless and the script can change at any second in Brexit,
so Its robust staying lengthy GBP for any time frame. It does really feel that forward
of the 19TH October that merchants will likely be consumers of weak point, however its
dangerous and given the IV I might be protecting my place dimension to a minimal.
My
weekly volatility scan has GBPUSD 1-week implied vol shifting to the highest of the
pack, which shouldn’t shock forward of subsequent week’s EU Summit and a possible
Article 50 extension.
We have
seen choices merchants piling into GBP upside buildings, the place we are able to see GBPUSD
1-week danger reversals shifting into the 96th percentile of the 12-month vary. This
highlights a sizeable skew in name shopping for over places and demonstrates that the
market feels the trail of least resistance over the week is larger.
I
cowl these dynamics within the video, with a concentrate on positioning, implied strikes
and occasion danger that can drive markets subsequent week. I stay fixated on USDCNH,
particularly as it’s driving AUDUSD so…