The Week Ahead – Jackson Hole Symposium and Powell in the Spotlight

On Thursday, core durable goods orders and the weekly jobless claims figures will also influence. Another fall in initial jobless claims would test further the softer labor market theory.

Michigan consumer sentiment numbers will wrap up the week on the economic data front.

While the economic indicators will draw interest, the Jackson Hole Symposium will be the focal point on Thursday and Friday, with Fed Chair Powell wrapping up the week later in the session. Sentiment toward the US economy and forward guidance on interest rates will be the main drivers for the week.

The hotter-than-expected US Retail Sales and an FOMC Committee open to further rate hikes suggest a pre-warning of a September Fed rate hike.

For the EUR:

It’s a busy week for the EUR. German producer price index numbers kickstart the week on Monday. A further decline in producer prices would support the grim outlook for the German economy.

However, prelim private sector PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone will have more impact on Wednesday. A more marked contraction across the manufacturing sector and a further slowdown in service sector growth could test bets on further ECB rate hikes.

German GDP and Ifo Business Climate Index figures wrap up another busy week on Friday.

Investors should also consider ECB commentary throughout the week. ECB… are on the calendar to speak.

For the Pound:

It is a quieter week for the Pound. However, prelim private sector PMI numbers for August could decide the fate of the next BoE monetary policy decision. The market focus will likely be on the services PMI. A contraction across the services sector would reignite fears of a UK economic recession.

With the economic calendar on the light side, investors should track BoE chatter throughout the week. No MPC members are on the calendar to speak, leaving BoE chatter with the media to influence.

For the Loonie:

It is a relatively busy week for the Loonie. Retail and core retail sales will be the focal point on Wednesday. The jury is still out on the September interest rate decision. A pickup in consumer spending could incentivize the Bank of Canada to hike rates further.

Other economic indicators include new house prices and wholesale sale figures. However, these will likely play second fiddle to the retail sales report.