Bank bonuses for 2025 won’t be announced until early next year, but one thing is becoming increasingly clear: they will be very, very different to last year’s.
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The most hopeful people at the halfway point of the year, by some margin, are likely currency traders. According to data from market intelligence provider Tricumen, the average currency trader produced 69% more revenue in the first half of 2025 than the first half of 2024; from $2.6m on average to $4.4m. Credit traders, as well as equities cash traders, also performed well.
The performance of credit revenues will be particularly welcomed by professionals in the sector. Our 2025 Salary and Bonus Report found that they had the lowest compensation, bonuses, and the lowest bonus increases of any sales & trading professional. They also reported below-average physical and mental health scores.
Some of the least happy people after 2025 are likely those in Equity Capital Markets (ECM). While per capita revenue across investment banking as a whole was flat (implying unchanged bonuses), ECM productivity per capita was down by 11%, according to Tricumen. If that trend continues, bonuses will be impacted heavily, given the downward trend of ECM.
Unfortunately for ECM bankers, our 2024 Salary and Bonus Report also found that they were one of the few groups of people whose bonuses declined last year too. Commodities traders, who enjoyed the highest bonus increases of their peers after last year, saw a significant productivity decline in the first half of 2025. Their high bonuses will likely not be repeated.
While there are signs that the deal pipeline is moving, volatility remains. President Trump today signed a new executive order introducing tariffs to 69 new countries including India, Taiwan, and Switzerland. They were not anticipated – CNBC called Trump’s trade strategy “unexpected.” While volatility may be good for sales and trading businesses, it’s less good for bankers looking for a predictable environment in which to do deals.
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