US Greenback in Impartial, GBP/USD The Largest Bull Wager

US Greenback, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, COT Report –Analysis

• USD Contrarian Properties Fade as Quick Squeeze Stabilises
• GBP/USD Stays the Largest Bull Wager
• General Positioning Adjustments Muted

US Greenback in Impartial, GBP/USD The Largest Bull Wager – COT Report

Within the newest CFTC reporting week, the USD brief squeeze had begun to stabilise, which has subsequently coincided with the buck’s outperformance being pale. Alongside this, with the USD in impartial territory, it now holds little contrarian properties to dictate worth motion. Elsewhere, positioning modifications had been muted within the Euro, which noticed a slight pullback in internet longs by $100mln and with a z-score of 0.44 (over a 3yr lookback), positioning is now not at excessive ranges. Throughout the commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD), positioning modifications had been muted throughout the board.

The largest internet positioning change had occurred within the Pound, the place internet longs rose by $485mln, to $2.2bln. The transfer had largely stemmed from quick cash accounts (leveraged funds), which in flip had seen an enchancment in spot GBP. Whereas I’ve beforehand highlighted that positioning within the Pound is arguably at stretched ranges (in response to z-score and percentile), it is very important notice that positioning in recent times had been largely skewed to the draw back as a consequence of Brexit uncertainty and thus in mild of the development within the UK fundamentals, due to a quick vaccination program and a plan for unwinding lockdown measures, even a modest internet lengthy within the forex would seem extreme. That being mentioned, whereas the Euro has loved a corrective transfer larger, I nonetheless favour an prolonged pullback in EUR/GBP.

Weekly FX Positioning

Supply: CFTC, DailyFX (Covers as much as April 13th, launched April 16th)

The Analytical Skills of the COT Report

Methods to Learn the CFTC Report

US Greenback Positioning

Supply: Refinitiv, DailyFX

GBP/USD Positioning

Supply: Refinitiv, DailyFX

EUR/USD Positioning

Supply: Refinitiv, DailyFX

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