US Greenback Outlook Bullish on CPI, Fed Feedback, Commerce Talks

US DOLLAR OUTLOOK: BULLISH

• US Dollar could rise if retail gross sales and CPI information cool Fed easing expectations
• Trump press convention, commerce talks may additionally cut back the urgency of fee cuts
• Feedback from Fed officers could amplify this impact and increase the Dollar

Learn to use political-risk analysis in your trading strategy!

The US Greenback could rise within the week forward if US CPI and retail gross sales information present an enchancment towards the backdrop of cooling Sino-US commerce struggle tensions and cut back the urgency for Fed fee cuts. Commentary from central financial institution officers all through the week could amplify this impact in the event that they reinforce the narrative that bettering fundamentals lend credence to the Fed’s determination to place a pause on easing credit score situations.

US Financial system Forecast

Whereas manufacturing exercise has been contracting – largely as a result of US-China commerce struggle – the companies sector and consumption has proven resilience. Nevertheless, this characteristic shouldn’t be particular to the US – most OECD nations are experiencing a slowdown in manufacturing. Usually robust labor market situations have saved the contagion of an industrial slowdown at bay; not less than for now.

Nevertheless, inflationary strain continues to say no amid a “synchronized slowdown” in international progress and as main economies – just like the Eurozone – have their progress outlook downwardly…