USD Forecast – US Recession Danger Revitalized by Coronavirus; Markit PMI Contracts & Yield Curve InvertsUSD value motion spi
USD Forecast – US Recession Danger Revitalized by Coronavirus; Markit PMI Contracts & Yield Curve Inverts
- USD value motion spiked decrease instantly after the most recent Markit PMI report revealed the US companies sector contracted
- Recession danger is again on the rise and largely attributable to financial impression from the coronavirus outbreak
- An inverted US Treasury yield curve suggests draw back dangers confronted by the economic system nonetheless loom and will immediate the Fed to chop charges once more
Odds that the US economic system will quickly slip right into a recession are seemingly again on the rise. This follows our prior US Recession Watch that highlighted a downshift in recession chances and the US-China trade war late final yr.
Now, because the coronavirus hits confidence and sends a shockwave throughout the worldwide provide chain, financial knowledge is beginning to deteriorate quickly.
A depressing Markit PMI report simply revealed that US enterprise exercise – notably within the companies sector – contracted throughout February.
US recession odds have been rekindled in response, which is mirrored by the abrupt pivot decrease within the US Dollar (USD) alongside a deepening of the US Treasury yield curve inversion (3m10s) after the info launched. However will the transfer final?
USD Value Evaluation: US Greenback Index Ricochets Off 3-Yr Excessive as Recession Odds Rise
Chart created by @RichDvorakFX with