Today also marks the Japanese fiscal year-end, so that remains a factor to consider when viewing the pair for the time being.But in the bigger picture
Today also marks the Japanese fiscal year-end, so that remains a factor to consider when viewing the pair for the time being.
But in the bigger picture, it has just been a shave off the top after a stellar March performance on the part of buyers after having hit the pivotal 125.00 level. I’ve outlined that earlier yesterday here.
In my view, the technicals tell more of the story for now as we see the upside momentum take a bit of a breather. Here’s a look at the near-term chart:
The downdraft this week meets a bit of a pause near the 200-hour moving average (blue line) and the range in between that and the 100-hour moving average (red line) is where the “battle” is taking place now.
That range is seen around 121.6 and 122.64 for the time being, leaving quite some room for price action to roam.
In the bigger picture, I still see key support and resistance @ 120.00 and 125.00 respectively. Those will be where the next big directional moves in the pair are defined in my view. As such, the price movements in between that could be seen as a little more rangebound and lacking in meaningful conviction.
But in essence, we’ve settled into a new landscape for USD/JPY for the time being with the bond market outlook also a key one to watch in trying to gauge how long we will be staying here for.
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