US Election Evaluation & InformationUS Election TimelineUS Election State of affairs Evaluation US Election 2020 Timeline: Ea
US Election Evaluation & Information
- US Election Timeline
- US Election State of affairs Evaluation
US Election 2020 Timeline: Earliest Doable Launch of Polling Outcomes
*Time in GMT
2016 Launch of Outcomes
One caveat to notice is that given coronavirus, there was far larger requests for mail-in ballots, which in flip has raised the significance of them resulting in some to boost expectations that outcomes will not be recognized within the days and probably weeks after the election date. That being stated, timings of outcomes may notably differ from 2016.
Nationwide Polls Keep a Wholesome Lead for Biden
Key Battleground Polling Reveals a Tighter Race
Key Battleground Statistics
- Ohio has the longest win streak in voting the presidential winner since 1964. No Republican has received the election with out successful Ohio.
- Florida has a win streak since 1992. Final time a republican received the election with out successful Florida was in 1924. Florida additionally dubbed the final word battleground.
- Arizona has solely voted for Democrat as soon as (in 1996) since 1952.
- Pennsylvania is among the many key blue wall states (Michigan & Wisconsin) that Trump received in 2016 by a 0.7% margin
- Aside from Ohio, election polls proceed to indicate a wholesome lead for Biden in key battlegrounds
- The dealing with of Coronavirus has been a key vocal level forward of the US election. As such, key states with a excessive variety of COVID fatalities relative to inhabitants dimension might be watched intently as as to if this impacts voters selections.
USD Shorts at Extremes Forward of US Election
In current instances, combination USD shorts haven’t been this excessive forward of a US election. That stated, as the chance surroundings turns into much less constructive amid the resurgence of virus instances, whereas US election uncertainty additionally picks-up. A ground within the short-term appears to be like to be in place for the buck as traders start to unwind their bearish positions.
Macro drivers will dictate what kind of USD quick squeeze happens with a place clear-out both providing traders to reload shorts or flip net-long.
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Obtain our recent This fall USD Forecast
US Election State of affairs Evaluation
The Final Contested Election
Contested Election = Worst Case State of affairs for Danger Asset
- A contested election may see a 5% drop within the S&P 500, very similar to in 2000, whereas the USD pushes increased.
- That stated, expectations to discover a definitive winner would seemingly comply with an identical timeline to what had been witnessed in 2000.
Timeline of Occasions Throughout 2000 Election
- Nov seventh: US Election Outcomes are Too Near Name
- Nov 26th: Bush Declared Winner of in Florida by Secretary of State
- Dec 12th: US Supreme Courtroom Votes in Favour of Bush
VIX Buying and selling Across the US Election
Over the previous 7 elections, the VIX has tended to pick-up the month forward the election earlier than tailing off after the occasion. The 2016 election noticed a steep rise within the VIX forward of the election, nonetheless, the volatility gauge did fall faster.
The 2000 Election had been an exception to the standard response on condition that this was a contested election. In flip, the VIX remained elevated for the weeks forward. Within the present local weather and distinctive circumstances, the chance of a contested election has been heightened. In such a state of affairs, the VIX would seemingly comply with the 2000 response extra intently.
As proven within the chart, the VIX is following its typical rise into the election. An consequence which replicates present polling for a snug Biden victory would see a fabric shift decrease within the VIX, permitting equities to push increased into year-end.
For a PDF of the US Election Playbook, click on right here
How Will Markets React to the 2020 Election?