WTI Oil Price Forecast: Crude Rebounds to $79.50 as the Iran Deal Resets the Market

Quick overview

WTI crude was trading at $79.56 per bbl. on July 14, 2026, with a 2% gain on the back of a bullish candle following a bounce off the support of the rising trendline. With the war premium largely off the market following the announcement of the US-Iran interim deal, the focus on oil is back to fundamentals, supply, inventories, and OPEC+ policy, which is why the price chart looks more bullish as the barrels come home. If it manages to break out above $83.40, the price can climb into the low $90s before running into supply at the top; however, if the trendline is not respected, the bias becomes bearish.

The US-Iran Deal Stripped Out the War Premium

The deal, an interim deal reached with Iran and signed in mid-June, has reopened the Strait of Hormuz for passage and oil exports from Iran, which have resumed albeit not at the same levels seen before the conflict, and tanker traffic has picked up. This deal removed a good chunk of the premium that had built up during the conflict. However, there is still uncertainty as to the quantity of Iranian oil making a return to the market, as well as the risk that tensions rise again.

Supply Builds While Demand Grows Slowly

For now, OPEC+ is still unwinding the voluntary cuts, with the group agreeing to higher production in July and August, with strong compliance so far. OPEC+ is balancing on a line as it allows the Iranian barrels to return but not so many that the market is flooded. There is even more oil available outside of OPEC, as U.S. oil output remains near record highs, and oil from Brazil, Guyana, and Canada remains strong as well. Combined with the return of more supply from Iran, there is a risk that there is surplus in the market in 2027.

There is a slight increase in demand, with growth expected to be at 1.2 million bpd. in 2026, led by China and India. But OECD oil demand remains capped due to high efficiency and oil prices. The increase in crude is offset by seasonal increases in demand in the Northern Hemisphere during the summer season.

Meanwhile, the Fed keeping rates high for longer supports the U.S. dollar, which makes commodities more expensive and puts them under pressure, while EIA and IEA reports have shown the oil markets to be accumulating oil and that there may be even more barrels coming onstream, adding to the bearish sentiment.

WTI Daily Technical Analysis: Rebound Off Trendline Support

But looking at the chart, it presents a completely different picture from what fundamentals show. WTI printed a +2.01% candle accompanied by high volumes, successfully holding the ascending trendline forming the base of a bullish channel and continuing its series of higher lows, with volumes surging on the green candle.

RSI at 53.43 remains neutral with no visible bearish divergence, hence there’s still ample room for the RSI to run before getting into an overbought zone. Above the price, $83.47 Fibonacci ($110.12-high sequence) level offers a resistance and should the prices continue to trend upwards, the channel would target $87 to $93.

WTI Oil Price Forecast and Key Levels

$83.47 resistance level above which the channel targets $87 to $93 zone; the most important thing is to hold the bullish trendline, and higher lows structure will remain in place. A technical analysis setup of taking long positions at $83.40 levels with a stop below $73.20, and a target of $93.60; however, as long as the prices trade above the bullish trendline support the setup will remain intact. It is an interesting picture because the fundamentals on the supply side are weak while the technical indicators have not given up hope, meaning that the technical analysis favors a rebound while the market rebalances downwards over time. Iranian oil export, OPEC+ meeting on oil supply, and weekly oil inventory will be the drivers that tip the balance in favor of either a rebound or a decline.

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.

His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.

His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.