The stock price of Regeneron (NASDAQ:REGN) has seen a 16% fall over the last twenty-one trading days, while it is down 6% over the last year. The volatility in REGN stock is being driven by the developments for REGEN-COV, its Covid-19 antibody cocktail. REGN stock plunged 6% in Friday (Oct 1) trade after Merck announced positive data for its Covid-19 antiviral oral pill. The positive data for Merck sent many vaccine stocks to lower levels, due to fears of vaccine sales declining sooner than earlier anticipated. Regeneron has developed an effective treatment for Covid-19, which is also recommended by the WHO, but it is priced much higher at $1,250 per dose, compared to $700 per patient cost for Merck’s oral pill. Although Merck’s pill is not as effective as Regenron’s, the price point may result in more takers for Merck’s pill, and this has led to a decline in REGN stock.
However, now that REGN stock has seen a decline of 16% in twenty-one trading days, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a higher chance of a decline in REGN stock over the next month. Out of 50 instances in the last ten years that REGN stock saw a twenty-one day decline of 16% or more, 30 of them resulted in REGN stock declining over the subsequent one month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 30 out of 50, or about 60% chance of a drop in REGN stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Regeneron Stock Chance of A Rise for more details.
So, if this follows historical performance, it is likely that REGN stock will fall to lower levels going forward. However, if you are considering REGN stock as an investment over a longer time frame, you can explore our forecast for Regeneron valuation of $530 per share, implying over 7% discount from its current levels of around $570.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last ten years data
- After moving -8% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 54% of the occasions.
- After moving -11% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 62% of the occasions
- After moving -16% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days only on 40% of the occasions.
Predict average return on Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) Stock Return: AI Predicts REGN Average and Excess Return After a Fall or Rise
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers
- Five-Day Return: AMGN highest at 0.4%; REGN lowest at -7.8%
- Ten-Day Return: JAZZ highest at 1%; REGN lowest at -11%
- Twenty-One Day Return: SPY highest at -4.2%; REGN lowest at -16%
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