Democrats defeated Republican senators in Arizona and Colorado this yr, whereas Republicans gained a Senate seat in Alabama. That implies that
Democrats defeated Republican senators in Arizona and Colorado this yr, whereas Republicans gained a Senate seat in Alabama.
That implies that Republicans will management no less than 50 seats within the incoming Senate, out of 100 whole, assuming Republican incumbent Sens. Thom Tillis (NC) and Dan Sullivan (AK) maintain their seats, as appears probably. Each of Georgia’s Senate seats are prone to be determined in runoff elections in January.
Wins in North Carolina and Georgia would give Republicans the Senate majority — one thing they might maintain solely as a result of Congress’s higher home is malapportioned to present small states like Wyoming precisely as many senators as giant states like California, although California has greater than 68 instances as many individuals as Wyoming.
Within the incoming Senate, Democratic senators will characterize no less than 20,314,962 extra individuals than their Republican counterparts — and that’s if we assume that Republicans win each runoff elections in Georgia. If the 2 Georgia seats go to the Democrats, the Senate might be cut up 50-50, however the Democratic half will characterize 41,549,808 extra individuals than the Republican half.
I derived these numbers utilizing 2019 inhabitants estimates by the USA Census Bureau. In states the place each senators caucus with the identical social gathering, I allotted the state’s complete inhabitants to that social gathering. In states the place the Senate delegation is cut up, I allotted half of the state’s inhabitants to every social gathering. Though Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Angus King (I-ME) determine as unbiased, each Sanders and King caucus with Democrats. So I coded them as Democratic senators.
You may test my work utilizing this spreadsheet.
One different truth is value noting. Within the present Senate, Democrats management a majority of the seats from essentially the most populous half of the states (26-24). Republicans owe their present majority to a crushing 29-21 lead within the least populous half of the states. Within the new Senate, Democrats will management between 27 and 29 seats from essentially the most populous half, relying on who prevails within the Georgia runoffs.
Republicans, in different phrases, wouldn’t be within the majority now — and so they definitely wouldn’t be within the majority subsequent yr — if not for malapportionment.
The implications of this malapportionment are breathtaking. Amongst different issues, Justices Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett have been all nominated by a president who misplaced the favored vote and confirmed by a bloc of senators who characterize lower than half of the nation. If the USA selected its leaders in free and truthful elections, none of those people would serve on the Supreme Court docket — and it’s probably that Democratic appointees would have a majority on the Court docket.
Equally, if Republicans management the Senate in 2021, and if Joe Biden is president, the GOP may have the ability to forestall Biden from confirming a Cupboard, to dam everybody Biden nominates to the federal bench, to forestall Biden from signing any laws, and even to close down the federal government.
This isn’t what the American individuals voted for in November. However it’s what a deeply damaged Structure, which successfully provides additional Senate seats to white conservatives in small states, has given us.