2020 election: How Biden — or Trump — might win 270 electoral votes

The query of whether or not President Donald Trump will likely be reelected isn’t actually as much as the entire nation.

Joe Biden at present has a reasonably large lead in nationwide polls. However because of the magic of the Electoral School system, the margins in a restricted variety of key states that occur to be politically divided will decide whether or not it’s Trump or Biden who’s sworn in on January 20, 2021 — or whether or not, if the result is way nearer, we head towards a nationwide disaster.

If Biden wins sufficiently big in sufficient swing states, he’ll probably be capable to beat again any try from Trump to query or contest the outcomes. As conservative commentator Hugh Hewitt as soon as wrote in a distinct context, “If it’s not shut, they will’t cheat.”

But when the Electoral School margin is way nearer — as an example, capable of be swung by one very shut state — anticipate recounts, authorized challenges, and a tense scenario.

So the Electoral School map and math are essential. There are 14 states and two congressional districts that the Trump and Biden campaigns must regulate. You may consider them in 4 teams.

The large six swing states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina are the states which are considered as almost certainly to find out the result.

The 2 swing congressional districts: Nebraska’s Second District and Maine’s Second District, a pair of stray electoral votes that may very well be essential in an especially shut contest.

The states Trump is attempting to defend: Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, and Texas in all probability received’t be the tipping level states, but when they flip to Biden, it probably means he’s profitable huge.

The states Biden is attempting to defend: Nevada, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Maine are all lean Biden states the place Trump hopes to make positive aspects.

I’ll run via all these teams under, and clarify the varied paths to victory for each Biden and Trump — and the paths to a a lot much less sure end result.

The large six: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina

These are six key states which have gotten by far essentially the most consideration from the campaigns and election analysts. NPR reported that just about 85 p.c of advert spending from presidential campaigns and outdoors teams has been targeted on these states.

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These states matter a lot as a result of they’re all medium to huge, they usually’re fairly evenly divided politically. 4 of them — Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida — have been received by Barack Obama in 2012 however Donald Trump in 2016. North Carolina went for Obama in 2008 however for Republicans within the two elections since. And Arizona has voted for Republicans for many years however has been trending Democratic in recent times.

Eking out a small margin of victory in most of those states can provide a candidate an enormous Electoral School payoff — as Trump found in 2016, when he received all six; he received three of these by lower than a proportion level.

Latest polling reveals some separation amongst these “huge six” states.

• Florida (29 EVs) and North Carolina (15 EVs) are the right-most of this batch, which means Biden averages a few very slim 1 to three level lead.
• Michigan (16 EVs) and Wisconsin (10 EVs) appear to be the left-most, with Biden main polls there by 5 to 7.
• Pennsylvania (20 EVs) and Arizona (11 EVs) are within the center, with Biden main there by Three to six.

So if the present polls are proper on and Biden wins all these states, he’ll clearly have received the presidency. But when the race tightens or if Trump overperforms polls, small margins in these six states will probably decide the winner.

On this group, there are 101 electoral votes at stake. And if the winner in each different state is identical as 2016 (removed from a positive factor, however we’ll get to that), Biden would start with a slight edge. Biden’s magic quantity is that he’d want 38 of those 101 electoral votes to win the presidency. Trump’s bar could be greater — he’d want 66 of the 101 electoral votes.

To get to his magic quantity, then, Trump probably has to win Florida and three extra of the states on this group — most plausibly North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Arizona.

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Biden, in the meantime, might attain his personal magic quantity by profitable Florida plus any one of many remaining 5 states on this group (assuming he has no stunning losses elsewhere). Within the under instance map, he wins Florida plus simply Wisconsin (which has the fewest electoral votes of those states):

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One other path for Biden, which doesn’t depend on Florida or North Carolina, could be via profitable simply Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania — flipping again these states Trump so carefully received in 2016:

Andrew Prokop/Vox

There’s additionally the scary risk of the Electoral School tie — which might happen if Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, whereas Biden wins Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona, and each different consequence from 2016 is identical:

Andrew Prokop/Vox

The 2 swing congressional districts: ME-2 and NE-2

One other quirk within the Electoral School system is that simply two small states — Maine and Nebraska — have made the weird choice to allot a few of their electoral votes to the winners in every congressional district within the state, quite than giving all of them to the statewide winner as the opposite 48 states do.

Virtually, one in every of Maine’s two districts is protected for Democrats, and two of Nebraska’s three districts are protected for Republicans. However the remaining district in every state — Maine’s Second District and Nebraska’s Second District — is up for grabs.

With only one electoral vote at stake for every, they’ll solely truly matter within the closest of races. But when such an in depth contest transpires, they’ll be completely essential. As an example, the 269-269 tie map above would flip to Biden if he was capable of win Nebraska’s Second District.

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Maine’s Second is rural, and white voters missing faculty levels make up a big share of the voters. Its end in presidential years had all the time been the identical as Maine’s statewide consequence — till 2016, when Trump received it by the sizable margin of 10 factors (whereas shedding the state by 3). Latest polls have confirmed Biden with a slim lead there this 12 months.

As for Nebraska’s Second District, encompassing Omaha, Barack Obama truly received a earlier model of it in 2008. Nebraska Republicans responded through the subsequent redistricting by transferring some Democratic voters out of the district, so Republicans received it in 2012 and 2016. However polls present Biden doing properly there this time round, as schooling polarization continues (each college-educated white voters and minority voters make up important chunks of the voters on this city district).

Right here’s one other state of affairs the place these two congressional districts might resolve the president — if Biden wins Michigan and Pennsylvania, however Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, and Wisconsin, with the 2 key congressional districts undecided.

Andrew Prokop/Vox

If both candidate received them each, he’d win; in the event that they cut up, it might be a 269-269 tie.

The states Trump should defend

Past the core huge six swing states and the 2 bizarre congressional districts, every candidate is attempting to go on offense in a set of states the place they believe their opponent is favored however hope for an upset.

For Biden, the states he’s attempting to pluck out of Trump’s palms are the standard swing states of Ohio and Iowa, and the lately Republican-leaning states of Georgia and Texas.

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We will consider this group as two pairs of states: two Biden is attempting to win again, and two which are comparatively new territory for Democrats to be contesting.

• Ohio (18 EVs) and Iowa (6 EVs) went for Obama twice, and trended closely towards Republicans in 2016 (Trump received them each by over eight factors). Biden hopes to win again, and ballot averages counsel he has a good shot of it — he’s at present about tied in Ohio and in addition in in Iowa.
• Texas (38 EVs) and Georgia (16 EVs) haven’t voted for Democratic presidential candidates in a long time — however Democrats’ margins of defeat there have lately shrunk (Trump received Georgia by 5 proportion factors and Texas by 9 proportion factors). At the moment, polling averages present Biden narrowly forward in Georgia and narrowly trailing in Texas.

It’s usually believed that these states are unlikely to be decisive, since if Biden wins one in every of these states, he’s in all probability received sufficient states from the massive six as properly.

However bizarre issues can occur. Right here, as an example, is an (admittedly not possible) map the place Trump holds robust within the Higher Midwest and Rust Belt (profitable Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania), and wins Florida and North Carolina — however Biden wins the election, as a result of surprisingly excessive turnout amongst Mexican American voters delivers him slim victories in Arizona and Texas.

Andrew Prokop/Vox

The states Biden should defend

There are additionally just a few states that Biden can’t fairly take with no consideration simply but: most notably Nevada and Minnesota, but it surely’s in all probability finest to regulate New Hampshire and Maine as properly.

Andrew Prokop/Vox

For Nevada (6 EVs) and Minnesota (10 EVs), polls truly present these two states about as shut as Wisconsin and Michigan proper now. However since Nevada has few electoral votes and Minnesota seems to lean to the left of neighboring Wisconsin, they’re much less prone to be decisive within the Electoral School math — besides, in fact, in a really shut end result.

Clinton received each of those states final time round, however they have been shut — she received Nevada by 2.four proportion factors, and Minnesota by a mere 1.5 proportion factors.

In the meantime, New Hampshire (four EVs) and and Maine (2 EVs for statewide winner) don’t look all that aggressive in latest polling — polls present Biden up by double digits in each states. Nonetheless, they’re value a point out as a result of they have been fairly shut in 2016 (Clinton received New Hampshire by simply 0.four proportion factors and Maine by 3).

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