Fewer 2020 incumbents misplaced basic elections for state legislative seats than in any 12 months within the final decade, based on a brand new eva
Fewer 2020 incumbents misplaced basic elections for state legislative seats than in any 12 months within the final decade, based on a brand new evaluation from the political web site Ballotpedia.
But whereas incumbents had been turning into safer basically elections, they had been extra susceptible in primaries than in any 12 months since 2012 — the final time redistricting compelled many elected officers into districts with fellow incumbents — an indication of the rising polarization of American politics, significantly within the Republican Celebration.
Almost twice as many Republican state legislators misplaced main contests (94) than basic elections (52) final 12 months, and almost thrice as many Democrats had been ousted in November (165) than in celebration primaries (60).
Total, simply 227 of 4,823 incumbents who appeared on basic election ballots this 12 months misplaced — the smallest numbers since Ballotpedia started monitoring knowledge in 2010. Fewer state legislative incumbents sometimes lose in presidential election years, a sign that voters who select one celebration for president keep on with the identical celebration for different workplaces on the poll.
Final 12 months’s elections additionally marked the primary time since 1944 that solely two statehouse chambers — the New Hampshire Home and Senate, which each flipped from Democratic to Republican majorities — modified partisan management.
“You’d name this election a draw,” stated Doug Kronaizl, who performed the Ballotpedia research of state legislative outcomes. “You didn’t see a bunch of flips. It was only a battle within the trenches so far as partisan management.”
With redistricting battles looming when the Census Bureau delivers its 2020 knowledge to states later this 12 months, management of redistricting modified in solely three states final 12 months: New Hampshire; Vermont, the place Democrats misplaced a veto-proof majority within the state legislature; and Virginia, the place voters authorized a nonpartisan redistricting fee.