Amid Afghan Chaos, a C.I.A. Mission That Will Persist for Years

WASHINGTON — Because the Afghanistan conflict wound down, the C.IA. had anticipated to step by step shift its major focus away from counterterrorism — a mission that remodeled the company over twenty years right into a paramilitary group targeted on manhunts and killing — towards conventional spycraft in opposition to powers like China and Russia.

However a pair of lethal explosions on Thursday had been the newest in a collection of quickly unfolding occasions for the reason that collapse of the Afghan authorities and the Taliban takeover of the nation which have upended that plan. Like a black gap with its personal gravitational pull, Afghanistan might draw the C.I.A. again into a fancy counterterrorism mission for years to return.

American officers are transforming plans to counter threats that might emerge from Afghanistan’s chaos, in accordance with present and former officers: negotiating for brand spanking new bases in Central Asian international locations; figuring out how clandestine officers can run sources within the nation with out the army and diplomatic outposts that supplied cowl to spies for twenty years; and determining from the place the C.I.A. might launch drone strikes and different Afghanistan operations.

Thursday’s assaults on the Kabul airport, which killed greater than a dozen U.S. service members and scores of Afghan civilians, had been proof that terrorist teams are already working to sow additional chaos within the nation and will hope to make use of it as a base for assaults exterior Afghanistan.

Hours later, President Biden pledged to seek out these accountable for the bombings. “We are going to reply with drive and precision at our time, on the place we select and in the mean time of our selecting,” he stated.

The USA and its allies need to preserve Afghanistan from devolving right into a terrorist haven akin to Syria a decade in the past and Afghanistan earlier than Sept. 11, when the chaos of conflict lured a hodgepodge of terrorists and new extremist teams had been born. Probably the most pressing risk in Afghanistan is the native Islamic State group, American officers stated. Leaders of Al Qaeda may additionally attempt to return to the nation. And whereas the Taliban might not need both group in Afghanistan, they might be incapable of maintaining them out, present and former American officers stated.

“It’s going to get loads tougher,” stated Don Hepburn, a former senior C.I.A. officer who served in Afghanistan. “The company is being drawn in lots of, many instructions.”

Mr. Biden’s willpower to finish the army’s involvement in Afghanistan implies that, beginning subsequent month, any American presence within the nation would more than likely be a part of a clandestine operation that’s not publicly acknowledged.

The C.I.A.’s new mission will likely be narrower, a senior intelligence official stated. It no will longer have to assist shield 1000’s of troops and diplomats and can focus as an alternative on searching terrorist teams that may assault past Afghanistan’s borders. However the speedy American exit devastated the company’s networks, and spies will more than likely need to rebuild them and handle sources from overseas, in accordance with present and former officers.

The USA can even need to take care of troublesome companions like Pakistan, whose unmatched means to play either side of a struggle pissed off generations of American leaders.

William J. Burns, the company’s director, has stated that it is able to gather intelligence and conduct operations from afar, or “over the horizon,” however he informed lawmakers within the spring that operatives’ means to assemble intelligence and act on threats will erode. “That’s merely a truth,” stated Mr. Burns, who traveled to Kabul this week for secret talks with the Taliban.

Challenges for the C.I.A. lie forward in Afghanistan, the senior intelligence official acknowledged, whereas including that the company was not ranging from scratch. It had lengthy predicted the collapse of the Afghan authorities and a Taliban victory, and since at the least July had warned that they might come ahead of anticipated.

Within the days after the Sept. 11 assaults, C.I.A. officers had been the primary to fulfill with Afghan militia fighters. The company went on to notch successes in Afghanistan, ruthlessly searching and killing Qaeda operatives, its major mission within the nation after Sept. 11.

It constructed an enormous community of informants who met their company handlers in Afghanistan, then used the data to conduct drone strikes in opposition to suspected terrorists. The company prevented Al Qaeda from utilizing Afghanistan as a base to mount a large-scale assault in opposition to america because it had on Sept. 11.

However that chapter got here with a price in each life and status. At the least 19 personnel have been killed in Afghanistan — a dying toll eclipsed solely by the company’s losses through the Vietnam Warfare. A number of company paramilitary operatives would later die preventing the Islamic State, an indication of how far afield the unique mission had strayed. The final C.I.A. operative to die in Afghanistan was a former elite reconnaissance Marine, killed in a firefight in Could 2019, a grim bookend to the battle.

And one of many company’s clandestine officers was practically prosecuted for the 2002 torture dying of a detainee at a C.I.A. black website often known as the Salt Pit. Raids by C.I.A.-trained Afghan items killed a lot of Afghan civilians, growing Taliban help in components of the nation.

Because the battle dragged on in Afghanistan, veteran company officers started to see that the conflict was misplaced. Certainly one of them was Greg Vogle, a former high company officer who escorted Hamid Karzai into the nation in 2001 and twice ran the C.I.A.’s sprawling station in Kabul in subsequent years. Mr. Vogle has informed colleagues that the primary time he went into Afghanistan, america was profitable the conflict. By the second time, it was a tie. By the third time, he stated, america was dropping.

In latest days through the frantic withdrawal, the C.I.A. has been concerned in secret rescue missions, in accordance with a senior American official, who declined to element the efforts.

The company expects its mission forward in Afghanistan will likely be “extra targeted” on monitoring the event of terrorist teams decided to assault america, the senior U.S. intelligence official stated.

The American covert operation in Afghanistan might be carried out by both C.I.A. operatives or Particular Operations army troops appearing underneath “Title 50” authority — much like when Navy SEALs killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan on a mission run by the spy company. Such episodes of placing the army underneath C.I.A. authority grew to become extra frequent within the post-9/11 period because the traces blurred between troopers and spies.

However the narrower mission poses its personal assessments, together with recovering from the injury to the C.I.A.’s supply networks attributable to the abrupt exit from Afghanistan.

Rebuilding America’s info assortment will rely partly on digital eavesdropping and partly on constructing new networks of human sources, this time from afar, in accordance with former authorities officers. American officers predicted that Afghan opponents of the Taliban will more than likely emerge who will need to assist and supply info to america.

And with out a big American army presence in Afghanistan, any drone strike in opposition to an Islamic State or Qaeda goal there should depart, for now, from the Persian Gulf. Such lengthy flights cut back the period of time the planes need to hunt targets, growing the chance of errors and missed targets. Or they might require a big, and costly, fleet of drones for use.

The State Division has but to safe entry to bases in Central Asian states that had been as soon as a part of the Soviet Union, and it’s unclear whether or not that may occur.

Russia has made clear it opposes any American presence in Central Asia. Whereas the previous Soviet states generally attempt to steadiness Moscow’s affect with agreements with the Individuals, Russia exerts way more management than it did 20 years in the past, when america received entry to bases in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan through the early components of the conflict in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan garnered little consideration throughout Mr. Burns’s affirmation hearings in February. The majority of questions from each Democrats and Republicans targeted on the Biden administration’s plans to shift intelligence sources to the problem of China, which Mr. Burns recognized as a high precedence.

Not lengthy afterward, the White Home issued an interim nationwide safety technique that put new emphasis on the necessity to deal with “nice energy” competitors with Russia and China. Senior American officers stated that precedence has not modified, and whereas Afghanistan has a brand new urgency, American intelligence businesses can deal with a number of priorities directly.

However historical past reveals that such multitasking will be troublesome, and that there are alternative prices. When the army and the C.I.A. targeted on the conflict in Iraq, Afghanistan suffered from inattention. A brand new, extra adversarial authorities in China emerged as america obsessed over the return of Russian aggression in Europe and the rise of the Islamic State.

“The entrance burner is crowded,” stated John E. McLaughlin, a former appearing director of the C.I.A. “The long run holds a mixture of challenges. Inevitably, we’re in a world now the place China, Russia, international locations have that magnitude and affect are going to be within the forefront, however you realize lurking within the background, there’s the potential for terrorists regrouping.”

The potential for Afghanistan to evolve right into a hub for terrorist networks additionally carries its personal political dangers for the president.

Any terrorist assault originating from Afghanistan would expose Mr. Biden to fierce criticism from his political opponents that it was a results of his determination to drag American troops from the nation — one more issue that’s more likely to carry intense White Home stress on spy businesses to maintain a laser deal with Afghanistan.

Eric Schmitt contributed reporting.