Biden Predicts Russia Will Invade Ukraine

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Biden Predicts Russia Will Invade Ukraine

“If any Russian military forces move across the Ukrainian border, that’s a renewed invasion, and it will be met with a swift, severe and united respon

“If any Russian military forces move across the Ukrainian border, that’s a renewed invasion, and it will be met with a swift, severe and united response from the United States and our allies,” she said in a statement. But she added that cyberattacks and paramilitary action might be treated differently, “with a decisive, reciprocal, and united response.”

The president’s comments came as Russia has marshaled roughly 100,000 troops, backed by tanks and heavy armor, on three sides of Ukraine. Mr. Biden has vowed to impose extensive sanctions if an invasion happens, but he acknowledged that responses could differ depending on the extent of the attack. For example, he noted that even crippling cyberattacks, of the kind Russia used to take out the power grids in parts of Ukraine in 2015 and 2016, might bring about a different response.

“It’s one thing to determine that if they continue to use cyberefforts, we will response the same way, with cyber,’’ he said. But the president cut himself off, so it was unclear if he was suggesting that a cyberattack on Ukraine would result in a U.S.-led or NATO-led cyberretaliation against Russia. While the United States has quietly conducted tabletop war games to simulate such an exchange, there are concerns that it could quickly escalate, and lead to more Russian cyberattacks on American targets.

The president appeared at one point to offer an off-ramp to the Russian leader, saying aloud what his negotiators have said in private to the Russians about Mr. Putin’s demands that Ukraine never be allowed into NATO and that the United States not base nuclear weapons there. Ukraine would not be accepted into the NATO alliance for years, Mr. Biden said. He added that he could assure Mr. Putin — as he did in a phone call several weeks ago — that the United States had no intention of basing nuclear weapons in there.

But when pressed, the president suggested there was no room to negotiate on Mr. Putin’s other demands: that all American and NATO troops be pulled out of countries that once were part of the Soviet bloc, and that all American nuclear weapons be removed from Europe. Both of those demands are included in a draft “treaty” that Mr. Putin’s government sent to the United States and NATO nations in December, demanding written answers — which so far have not been forthcoming.

“We’re going to actually increase troop presence in Poland and Romania, et cetera, if in fact he moves,’’ Mr. Biden said. “Because we have a sacred obligation” to defend those nations, both of which are NATO nations.

“We don’t have that obligation relative to Ukraine, although we have great concern about what happens in Ukraine,” he added.

www.nytimes.com