Can Trump Win The Election? Sure. However the Path to 270 Is Troublesome.

President Trump’s victory in 2016 is remembered for defying polls and gorgeous Democrats. However in some ways, it was not a shock.

He prevailed with a piercing outsider message on jobs, immigration, China and commerce. He restrained himself on Twitter within the remaining weeks whereas portraying his opponent, Hillary Clinton, as hostile to the economically disenfranchised blue-collar voters flocking to his rallies. His marketing campaign labored systematically to drive up margins of white voters in battleground states that Democrats had largely taken without any consideration.

Mr. Trump’s obstacles are significantly larger this time. He’s an unpopular incumbent within the midst of a pandemic and an financial decline. He’s dealing with a a lot completely different opponent, Joseph R. Biden Jr., who has rigorously studied errors Mrs. Clinton made in 2016.

But with two weeks till Election Day, Mr. Trump retains a slender path to victory, within the view of many analysts, one that will require him to attract on his best techniques from 2016 and make basic adjustments in his marketing campaign type to broaden his enchantment past his political base. He additionally wants Mr. Biden to make a mistake.

The clearest street for Mr. Trump is to carry one of many three states he snatched from Democrats in 2016 — Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin — in addition to the remainder of his profitable electoral map, together with Arizona and Florida, the place Mr. Biden is now aggressive. Polls point out that could be a daunting activity, however not an not possible one, notably if he succeeds once more in driving up help amongst working-class voters, together with in additional rural areas he dominated in 2016, whereas holding down Mr. Biden’s help amongst nonwhite voters.

Nonetheless, interviews with 21 Republican and Democratic strategists, lots of whom have labored for different presidential campaigns over the previous 30 years, recommend that Mr. Trump will want some 11th-hour disruptions within the race. That may embrace a foul stumble by Mr. Biden within the debate on Thursday or on the path; court docket rulings or Republican techniques that suppress the Democratic vote; and a G.O.P. floor sport that seems voters who could not have been counted by pollsters.

And Mr. Trump might want to deliver self-discipline to the marketing campaign path that has to date eluded him, the strategists say. That can imply presenting a forceful and uncluttered enchantment that he’s higher ready than Mr. Biden to rebuild the economic system, whereas attempting but once more to attract a distinction between himself and an opponent he has sought to painting as ideologically too far to the left to run the nation.

In the long run, most strategists mentioned the one greatest hope for Mr. Trump was for Mr. Biden to do one thing to fret or alienate swing voters who Mr. Trump has already pushed into the Democratic camp. And counting in your opponent to make a deadly mistake within the remaining days is never a great technique.

Develop the citizens

Republicans have proven success in registering new voters in states like Florida and Pennsylvania. That may very well be necessary in constructing on a key a part of the president’s 2016 technique: turning out working-class white Individuals who haven’t voted earlier than.

“There are few days left to vary the trajectory of the race,” mentioned Sara Fagen, who was the White Home political director for President George W. Bush. “Trump’s greatest probability at this level could be to dramatically enhance turnout amongst non-college-educated white voters within the industrial Midwest.”

Even optimistic Democrats (and most Democrats are optimistic) say this can be a trigger for concern.

“The Republicans have been laser-focused on rising the citizens this time,” mentioned Donna Brazile, who managed Al Gore’s 2000 marketing campaign for president. “The Republicans have a greater operation on the bottom than something we’ve seen since 2004.’’

And it isn’t solely white working-class voters. Polling means that Mr. Trump is doing as nicely or barely higher with Black and Latino voters in some states than he was in 2016 in opposition to Mrs. Clinton.

The electoral map

Mr. Biden is aggressive in a number of states that Mr. Trump gained in 2016: Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Some polls additionally present Mr. Biden with a major lead in Florida, which has lengthy been the Lucy-and-the-football state for Democratic presidential candidates.

However any street to re-election for Mr. Trump leads by means of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. He’s unlikely to win with out holding on to at the least a kind of three 2016 upset states (and ideally two), although which of them supply him one of the best alternative adjustments by the day.

Some analysts have recommended he pour assets into Wisconsin, which started in-person early voting on Tuesday. “It’s fairly a problem for him,” mentioned Katherine J. Cramer, a political scientist on the College of Wisconsin-Madison. “It looks like Biden is actually holding his personal right here.”

From there, he can flip to cobbling collectively the electoral votes he wants to succeed in 270 — by holding on to Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and doubtlessly grabbing Nevada, Minnesota or New Hampshire from the Democrats. Greater than something, Mr. Trump can not lose Florida.

Mr. Biden enjoys large leads in lots of nationwide polls, however the race is tighter in lots of of those states. That will show important if some state polls are off, as they had been in 2016, although pollsters say that’s not doubtless. “Return and take a look at October 2016,” mentioned Newt Gingrich, the previous Republican speaker of the Home. “This was the time of the panic over the ‘Entry Hollywood’ tape, when everybody knew that Trump was lifeless. I all the time mentioned he was going to win.”

Covid-19

Mr. Trump might restrict the persevering with political harm from his administration of the pandemic, analysts mentioned, if he stopped providing chipper assessments of the coronavirus and ceased presenting himself as proof {that a} illness that has killed over 220,000 individuals isn’t a giant risk. Then he might flip to points that will broaden his enchantment, notably to girls and older voters.

“He ought to take coronavirus significantly,” mentioned Stephanie Cutter, a Democratic advisor and veteran of presidential campaigns. “He ought to begin chairing Covid conferences. Do some joint appearances with Anthony Fauci. Present some empathy for individuals whose lives have been misplaced. Cease speaking about himself.”

Karl Rove, the senior strategist for Mr. Bush, mentioned that Mr. Trump might search to blunt Mr. Biden’s assaults on the White Home’s administration of the pandemic by pointing to Mr. Biden’s personal response in the course of the winter.

“There’s a number of info on the market {that a} disciplined marketing campaign might use to say to Biden, ‘What you and your advisers had been saying and doing then reveals you didn’t have it proper and all this criticism is Monday morning quarterbacking,’” Mr. Rove mentioned.

Displaying extra self-discipline

One of many causes Mr. Trump gained in 2016 was that he started exhibiting extra self-discipline within the remaining weeks of his marketing campaign: much less tweeting and trolling.

If he had been to reprise that, maybe he might get weary Individuals to present him one final look.

“Trump should flip to the disciplined teleprompter demeanor he used over the past two weeks of 2016,” mentioned Charlie Black, a veteran of many Republican presidential contests. “He should speak about two points solely: the economic system and the Democrats’ plan to pack the Supreme Courtroom.”

However in 2016, Mr. Trump was not coping with a pandemic. He was out-hustling Mrs. Clinton on the marketing campaign path daily, and he or she was coping with a each day inflow of unhealthy information.

And if there may be something the political world has realized over these previous 4 years, it’s that Mr. Trump doesn’t pivot. If he’s getting take-the-high-road recommendation from his strategists, there is no such thing as a signal that he’s following it, as despondent Republicans had been reminded this week when Mr. Trump began attacking Dr. Fauci.

A Biden stumble

Mr. Trump has all the time counted on Mr. Biden’s having a psychological lapse that will underscore the president’s competition that the previous vice chairman has misplaced one thing on his fastball. Mr. Biden has supplied loads of missteps over time to encourage that type of hope. However that didn’t occur on the first debate, and Mr. Trump has been annoyed in his makes an attempt to use Mr. Biden’s stumbles on the marketing campaign path.

There may be another debate and two extra weeks of campaigning that may give Mr. Trump a possibility to keep up stress on his opponent — with assaults on the enterprise dealings of his son Hunter Biden, as an illustration — in hopes of forcing a mistake that might deliver again some swing voters whom Mr. Trump has misplaced.

Voter suppression and court docket challenges

Republicans have been attempting, with laws and court docket battles, to limit absentee balloting, which might make the distinction in an in depth election.

“Encompass the counters, discover pleasant governors and commissioners who gained’t certify the vote,” mentioned Susan Estrich, who managed the 1988 presidential marketing campaign of Michael S. Dukakis. Stuart Stevens, a Republican advisor who’s now a critic of the president, mentioned that Mr. Trump’s “solely reasonable hope is voter suppression by means of each means potential.”

Mr. Trump has shocked the world earlier than. However even accounting for his loyal base, and his tenacity as a campaigner, Republicans and Democrats say Mr. Trump’s political future could now be out of his palms.

“It’s been locked in for months, and is now shifting away from him even additional post-debate,” mentioned Mark Salter, a senior adviser to Senator John McCain, the Republican presidential nominee in 2008. “I suppose some unexpected disaster or large Biden mistake would possibly reverse the pattern, nevertheless it appears fairly clear {that a} majority of voters wish to get Trump the hell out of there earlier than he screws up much more.”