Georgia Senate election results 2022: Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker are headed to a runoff

Much as it did in 2020, the Georgia Senate race is going to a runoff after neither Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock or Republican Herschel Walker was able to secure more than 50 percent of the vote.

The runoff, which will be on December 6, means that Warnock and Walker will spend almost another month going head-to-head, and that both parties will have to work to turn out voters for the second time in less than four weeks.

The support both candidates got during the election suggests that the runoff is poised to be a close contest as well. Given historical trends in the state as analyzed by FiveThirtyEight, the Republican candidate has typically seen gains during runoffs, though that dynamic was reversed in 2020 when Democrats — including Warnock and Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) — expanded their margins to capture two Senate seats and flip Senate control to Democrats.

What do Walker and Warnock have going for them in the runoff?

Both candidates have some factors in their favor.

John Bazemore/AP

Warnock, who has held the seat for the last two years, has a slight incumbency advantage and better favorability ratings compared to Walker. He’s emphasized his policy positions — including support for capping insulin costs and expanding Medicaid in the state — and stressed his willingness to work with Republicans. And he’s distanced himself from President Joe Biden, who has lower approval ratings in the state, while maintaining higher approval ratings of his own.

Warnock has also benefited from Walker’s extensive baggage. Walker is among the Republican candidates this cycle who has faced serious candidate quality issues in the wake of allegations that he paid for two women’s abortions, despite favoring severe abortion restrictions himself. Walker has denied both of these allegations, though he’s also faced allegations of domestic violence and claims that he misrepresented his business experience and law enforcement experience.

Walker still has a clear path, however. Historically, Republicans have been able to turn out more of their voters for runoffs in the state, which has a slight GOP lean. The party in power also typically faces a backlash during the midterms, momentum that could continue to help Republicans especially as voters express ongoing concerns about inflation. Given his successful football career in Georgia, Walker’s celebrity status is still lauded by many voters, and that will continue to insulate him from some of the negative critiques he’s fielded.

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Democrats and Republicans will now duke it out to get more of their voters to the polls. In 2020, successful Democratic turnout efforts contributed heavily to both Warnock and Ossoff’s wins in the state. That same year, doubts that President Donald Trump sowed about the election process also deterred some Republicans from showing up to the polls, with tens of thousands of voters declining to participate in the Senate runoffs after voting in the presidential election.

In recent years, Georgia has seen significant demographic shifts including an increase in Black, Latino, and Asian American voters, constituents who could contribute to another Democratic win this cycle if they’re mobilized in the same way they were in 2020.