Jaime Harrison vs. Lindsey Graham: How South Carolina turned a Senate battleground in 2020

South Carolina is the Senate battleground that nobody noticed coming.

In a state the place no Democrat has gained a Senate seat for greater than twenty years, former South Carolina Democratic Social gathering Chair Jaime Harrison has fielded an extremely robust problem to incumbent Sen. Lindsey Graham, a high-profile Trump ally. Though early polling had Harrison lagging Graham by as a lot as 17 share factors in February, current surveys have the 2 lawmakers in a statistical tie.

The help he’s gotten has shocked many — together with Harrison himself.

“I’m amazed by it,” he advised Vox. “I obtained into this race as a result of I knew I had a shot, however not in my wildest goals did I think about a marketing campaign rising like this marketing campaign has grown.”

Longtime South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC), whom Harrison beforehand labored for as a congressional staffer, has echoed this sentiment. “Not a single soul alive believed when he introduced for the Senate that he can be sitting right here 30 days out, 48-48,” Clyburn mentioned in an early October interview with Politico.

By elevating a staggering sum of money, and positioning himself as a reasonable with shut ties to the state, Harrison has been capable of garner robust help from Democrats and independents, in addition to a sliver of reasonable Republicans. And now Graham faces one of many closest races of his political profession.

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Graham has acknowledged this by making appeals for donations throughout a number of Fox Information appearances, and marketing campaign spokesperson T.W. Arrighi appeared to mission a mix of optimism and realism in an announcement to Vox: “Make no mistake — our inside polling has us on monitor for a victory in November, however Senator Graham is combating for each vote as he by no means takes something with no consideration.”

Total, the competition between Harrison and Graham might hinge on voters who break up their ticket between the presidential and Senate races. President Donald Trump remains to be anticipated to win in South Carolina — even when it’s by a lot narrower margins than he did in 2016, when he was forward by 15 factors. This implies some Trump voters would probably must defect from Graham — in favor of both Democrats or a third-party candidate — for Harrison to edge out the longtime Republican lawmaker.

That situation, Winthrop College pollster Scott Huffmon says, is “Harrison’s slim path on a Nepalese cliff.”

How Harrison closed a double-digit polling hole, briefly defined

Harrison’s energy as a candidate and his ties with nationwide Democrats (he’s an affiliate chair of the Democratic Nationwide Committee) are among the many components which have helped him launch a strong marketing campaign that’s attracted thousands and thousands in donations from each inside and outdoors the state. As of September, Harrison had raised $85 million in comparison with Graham’s $58 million, and that benefit has translated to an enormous presence on tv and in digital promoting.

Harrison’s huge fundraising haul has been essential in establishing him as a formidable challenger partly as a result of it has allowed him to rapidly go from being much less well-known to having vast title recognition throughout the state.

“Jaime Harrison has carried out what no Democratic candidate has efficiently been capable of do, and that’s elevate sufficient cash to take the combat to Lindsey Graham in each a part of South Carolina,” says Anton Gunn, a strategist and former state political director for President Barack Obama’s 2008 marketing campaign.

Harrison tells Vox this help has been pushed by grassroots power. “We have now gotten 1000’s of volunteers, I feel we’re on [14,000] or 15,000 individuals who signed as much as volunteer for our marketing campaign. We’ve gotten nicely over one million contributions,” he mentioned. Because the Guardian reported, each Harrison’s and Graham’s campaigns have seen a excessive proportion of their contributions coming from out of state.

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Consultants additionally observe that Harrison started placing out promoting early within the 12 months — months earlier than Graham started mounting a comparable effort on the air — enabling him to introduce himself to voters by specializing in his background, household, and values. All through his marketing campaign, Harrison’s messaging has emphasised his ties to South Carolina and insurance policies that relate to the state, like rural broadband entry, reasonably than his partisan affiliation or opposition to Trump. A local South Carolinian who grew up in Orangeburg with a single mom, Harrison ceaselessly talks about his private connection to the state.

He’s additionally taken extra reasonable positions broadly, shying away from help for Medicare-for-all and the Inexperienced New Deal and noting that he wouldn’t again eliminating the filibuster, for now. “It’s about opening a Pandora’s field, and the query is, there could also be short-term political features, however are we snug with long run repercussions for that?” he mentioned.

Because the deal with well being care has grown through the pandemic, Harrison has as an alternative emphasised the necessity for Medicaid growth. Graham, in the meantime, has continued to oppose the Inexpensive Care Act and has mentioned he would like a system that concerned block grants to states, which he says would give South Carolina extra flexibility.

Due to the results of the coronavirus, well being care is a high problem for a lot of voters. “The Trump administration’s failure to handle Covid-19 early and emphatically weighs on the minds of far too many South Carolinians.” mentioned Democratic strategist Lauren Harper, who’s additionally the spokesperson for the Lindsey Should Go tremendous PAC. “That failure has exacerbated the necessity for high quality and reasonably priced well being care right here in our state.”

Broadly, in his messaging, Graham has characterised Harrison as being tied to the “far left,” whereas emphasizing his personal dedication to what he has known as “regulation and order.” The senator has made it clear that he opposes legal justice reforms like defunding the police (which Harrison has additionally mentioned he’s towards). And Graham has argued that he not solely has robust connections to the state however has introduced South Carolina federal funding for initiatives like the event of the Port of Charleston.

Harrison has been capable of counter Graham’s marketing campaign rhetoric so efficiently, in keeping with Furman College political science professor Danielle Vinson, as a result of his ideological positioning and private story make him an “superb Democratic candidate for South Carolina.”

“He’s not too far left; he is aware of the state rather well having been the South Carolina Democratic Social gathering chair,” Vinson says.

The coalition of voters Harrison wants embrace independents, reasonable Republicans, and ticket splitters

Due to the political stance he’s taken, Harrison has been capable of join with Democrats in addition to a powerful phase of independents and a small group of reasonable Republicans who’re probably turning away from President Donald Trump. To win, he’ll want huge turnout from Democratic base voters — together with the Black voters who comprise 60 p.c of the Democratic voters in South Carolina.

“We have now to have the turnout that we had in 2008,” mentioned Gunn. That 12 months, 65.2 p.c of Black voters nationally turned out, in comparison with 59.6 p.c in 2016, in keeping with the Pew Analysis Middle.

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Per a September Quinnipiac ballot of the state, Harrison has the backing of 97 p.c of Democrats, 54 p.c of independents, and 5 p.c of Republicans. Gunn estimates that the state normally falls 55-45 in favor of Republicans, so securing GOP voters — particularly reasonable Republican ladies who could also be shifting away from each Trump and Graham — is significant for Harrison. Considerations concerning the president’s dealing with of the pandemic, in addition to his rhetoric, are among the many components turning these voters towards Democratic candidates.

Cook dinner Political Report’s Jessica Taylor has famous, too, that Democratic candidates for federal workplace have traditionally capped out at 48 p.c of the vote in South Carolina, which means eking out even an enchancment of some share factors amongst swing voters might safe the race for Harrison.

There are another developments within the state that would elevate that 48 p.c cap Democrats have struggled to surpass up to now. Amongst them is an inflow of latest residents who’ve moved from different left-leaning locations. “New of us from different elements of the nation that are usually slightly extra blue are shifting to South Carolina,” says School of Charleston political science professor Gibbs Knotts. “That’s been one thing that Democrats have been capable of faucet into.”

Along with garnering the help of all these teams, Harrison can even need to persuade some Republicans who’re nonetheless aligned with Trump to interrupt with Graham and break up their ticket.

It’s unclear how Graham’s weak point with conservative voters will have an effect on the race

One of many largest variables within the race is the bloc of conservative voters who help Trump however nonetheless aren’t that enthusiastic about Graham.

Graham — like Republicans in a few of the different contested races — is feeling the stress from each wings of the GOP. On the conservative aspect, there are voters who assume he nonetheless doesn’t again Trump sufficient, regardless of his staunch defenses of the president’s controversial Supreme Courtroom nominees: first throughout a fiery second in Supreme Courtroom Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s affirmation hearings in 2018, and extra lately within the hearings for nominee Amy Coney Barrett.

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Graham, earlier than Trump’s election, had been considered as a extra reasonable determine within the Senate who aligned himself intently with Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), which many conservatives within the state weren’t completely satisfied about. “5 years in the past, sure components of the Republican Social gathering had been burning him in effigy due to his affiliation with McCain,” says Chip Felkel, a Republican strategist who’s additionally an adviser for the Lincoln Undertaking.

There’s a query of whether or not these conservative voters’ issues with Graham are nonetheless so robust that they’ll break up their ticket: In the event that they do, consultants assume a small fraction might vote for third-party for Structure Social gathering candidate Invoice Bledsoe, although they’re much less prone to cross over to Democrats.

“I don’t assume there might be lots of people who will vote for Trump and never Graham,” says Felkel. “I feel there are some former Tea Social gathering members — now Trump fanatics — who may select to vote third celebration, however I don’t assume there might be quite a lot of them.”

Involved that help for him would result in Harrison profitable the election, Bledsoe dropped out of the race in early October and endorsed Graham, saying, “President Trump has requested that conservatives stand collectively and reelect Lindsey Graham with a view to assist make America nice once more, and I agree.”

However as a result of his exit got here so late, Bledsoe’s title will nonetheless seem on the poll. Harrison, hoping to make the most of this truth, has lately put out promoting aimed toward swaying this phase of conservative voters in favor of Bledsoe, together with digital advertisements arguing that he’s “too conservative” for South Carolina. Given how shut the Senate race has formed as much as be, any slim features produced from this technique might probably be decisive.

Graham has tried to keep away from this situation himself by shoring up his conservative bona fides, and proving his closeness to Trump — most lately enjoying a distinguished function within the development of Barrett’s nomination, which is a high precedence for the president and lots of Republican voters.

And, in truth, Arrighi, Graham’s spokesperson, highlighted Graham’s push to seat Barrett as considered one of his key achievements, saying, “Senator Graham is combating for South Carolina, serving to households and companies get by way of the pandemic, and dealing to make sure a conservative Supreme Courtroom with Decide Amy Coney Barrett as the most recent member.”

Barrett’s affirmation course of, too, has highlighted the function a Republican majority performs within the Senate. If Republicans had been to maintain their majority, they’d be capable of impede Democratic payments in a possible Biden administration, and proceed advancing judges in a Trump administration. This may very well be a cause that some conservative voters in the end again Graham, even when they don’t totally agree together with his file.

With only a few weeks to go, this race is poised to be near the very finish. “I feel it’s going to be razor-thin margins,” mentioned Gunn. “It’s not going to be a blowout both manner.”

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