WASHINGTON — As President Biden signaled this week that he would let a Might 1 deadline move with out withdrawing American troops from Afghanistan,
WASHINGTON — As President Biden signaled this week that he would let a Might 1 deadline move with out withdrawing American troops from Afghanistan, some officers are utilizing an intelligence evaluation to argue for prolonging the navy mission there.
American intelligence businesses have instructed the Biden administration that if U.S. troops go away earlier than a power-sharing settlement is reached between the Taliban and the Afghan authorities, the nation might fall largely underneath the management of the Taliban inside two or three years after the withdrawal of worldwide forces. That might doubtlessly open the door for Al Qaeda to rebuild its power throughout the nation, in line with American officers.
The categorised evaluation, first ready final yr for the Trump administration however not beforehand disclosed, is the newest in a collection of grim predictions of Afghanistan’s future that intelligence analysts have delivered all through the two-decade-long struggle.
However the intelligence has landed in a modified political atmosphere. Whereas President Donald J. Trump pushed for a withdrawal of all forces even earlier than the phrases of the peace deal required it, Mr. Biden has been extra cautious, saying Thursday that he doesn’t view Might 1 as a deadline he should meet, though he additionally stated he “couldn’t image” troops being within the nation subsequent yr.
The choice looms as one of the essential of Mr. Biden’s younger presidency. He lengthy argued whereas vp for a minimal presence in Afghanistan, however has been stated to have privately described as haunting the potential of permitting the nation to descend into collapse.
Some senior Biden administration officers have expressed skepticism of any intelligence prediction of a resurgence of a weakened Al Qaeda or of the Islamic State. Taliban commanders stay against the Islamic State in Afghanistan, and Al Qaeda, which has little present presence within the nation, might regroup as a substitute in any variety of different lawless areas all over the world.
Additionally left unanswered by the intelligence warning is the query of whether or not Afghanistan might actually prosper if American troops stay indefinitely. Their presence would most definitely stop a collapse of the nation’s personal safety forces and permit the federal government in Kabul, the Afghan capital, to retain management of its main cities, however the Taliban are nonetheless prone to regularly increase their energy in different elements of the nation, together with curbing the rights of ladies.
A Taliban spokesman stated on Friday that the group was dedicated to final yr’s peace settlement “and desires the American aspect to additionally stay firmly dedicated.” If troops are usually not withdrawn by Might 1, the spokesman promised, the Taliban would “proceed its jihad and armed battle towards international forces.”
Biden administration officers insisted no ultimate choice had been made. However, with the deadline looming, administration officers are jockeying to affect Mr. Biden and his high nationwide safety officers. Whereas Lloyd J. Austin III, the secretary of protection, has not signaled what plan of action he prefers, some Pentagon officers who imagine American forces ought to keep longer have pointed to the intelligence evaluation predicting a Taliban takeover of the nation.
Some navy commanders and administration officers have argued that any set date for withdrawing the roughly 3,500 American troops who stay, whether or not it’s Might 1 or on the finish of the yr, will doom the mission. The one technique to protect hard-fought features in Afghanistan, they stated, is to maintain the small American presence there lengthy sufficient to drive a long-lasting deal between the Taliban and Afghan authorities.
These officers have used the intelligence evaluation to make the purpose {that a} withdrawal this yr will result in a fall of the present authorities, a pointy erosion of ladies’s rights and the return of worldwide terrorist teams. A rush to the exit, some officers stated, will solely drag the US again into Afghanistan quickly after leaving — a lot as was the case in Iraq in 2014, three years after the Obama administration pulled troops out of that battle.
The White Home has held a collection of conferences on Afghanistan, and extra are to return. On Thursday, the president stated he was ready for briefings from Mr. Austin, who met lately with Afghan officers, and Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, who conferred this week with NATO allies, for his or her bottom-line recommendation on what he ought to do.
For a lot of Biden administration officers, the problem that has resonated essentially the most clearly is the risk {that a} Taliban takeover might pose to Afghan girls. Whereas some former intelligence officers predict the Taliban will initially take care to not roll again girls’s rights altogether — at the very least in main cities — in the event that they take over the complete nation, it will likely be troublesome to ensure protections for girls, resembling schooling for ladies and entry to well being care.
“Any settlement should protect their features if Afghanistan needs to make sure the worldwide group’s continued political and monetary assist,” Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, instructed the Safety Council this week. “We won’t give an inch on this level.”
The Biden administration is making a ultimate effort earlier than Might 1 to indicate progress in slow-moving negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan authorities in Doha, Qatar. The Taliban, in line with American officers, are stalling.
The administration is pushing the 2 sides to take part in a peace convention in Turkey to exhibit progress. Concurrently, the American and Taliban negotiators proceed to attempt to cement a 90-day discount in violence, however to date, each side have hesitated to agree.
The categorised intelligence evaluation of the Taliban largely taking management assumes that the Afghan authorities and the Taliban fail to achieve a political settlement and {that a} civil struggle would erupt after the American exit.
Administration officers warned that making any intelligence estimate is difficult, that predictions in regards to the future are at all times imprecise and that numerous components affect the evaluation.
For instance, intelligence estimates rely upon whether or not worldwide funding for the Afghan authorities stays in place. The extra money the US and its allies present Afghanistan, the longer the federal government in Kabul ought to have the ability to retain management of among the nation. However some officers stated that historical past exhibits that after American troops are withdrawn, Congress strikes shortly to chop monetary assist for companion forces.
There’s additionally a debate in Washington in regards to the seriousness of the specter of a return of terrorist teams. For now, the variety of Qaeda and Islamic State militants in Afghanistan could be very small, a senior U.S. official stated.
Some senior lawmakers with entry to the categorised assessments stated that it was not sure that if the US withdrew that Al Qaeda might rebuild a base in Afghanistan from which to hold out terrorist assaults towards the US.
“What’s that risk actually going to be?” Consultant Adam Smith, Democrat of Washington State and the chairman of the Home Armed Providers Committee, stated this week throughout a digital convention on Afghanistan. “This isn’t the 1990s when Al Qaeda arrange camps, they usually had the Taliban and nobody was listening to them.”
Mr. Smith stated protecting U.S. troops in Afghanistan truly elevated the danger to People there, incurred higher monetary prices and handed a propaganda victory and recruiting software to the US’ enemies.
Some counterterrorism officers imagine that Al Qaeda would favor to re-establish its headquarters in Afghanistan, ought to American troops withdraw. However different officers stated Al Qaeda’s management is likely to be simply as prone to look to Africa or the Center East.
Whereas American intelligence officers have been largely targeted on the specter of Al Qaeda, senior navy officers have additionally raised the prospect of a development within the energy of the Afghanistan arm of the Islamic State.
However in recent times, the Taliban have been at odds with the Islamic State. The 2 teams have fought, and the Taliban have for essentially the most half pushed again Islamic State forces.
“I can’t think about a state of affairs the place ISIS and the Taliban would strategically cooperate or collaborate in Afghanistan,” stated Lisa Maddox, a former C.I.A. analyst. “The Taliban is an ideological group, and that ideology is Afghan-centric and never aligned with ISIS’ overarching objectives.”
The intelligence estimate predicted that the Taliban would comparatively swiftly increase their management over Afghanistan, suggesting that the Afghan safety forces stay fragile regardless of years of coaching by the American navy and billions of {dollars} in U.S. funding.
Offensives final yr in Kandahar and Helmand Provinces, two areas within the nation’s south the place the Taliban have lengthy held sway, demonstrated that the police and native forces are unable to carry floor, prompting elite commando forces and common military troops to take their place — a tactic that’s doubtless unsustainable in the long term.
The Afghan safety forces nonetheless rely closely on U.S. air assist to carry territory, which American navy leaders acknowledged this week. It’s unclear whether or not that American air energy would proceed if U.S. forces left Afghanistan, maybe launched from bases within the Persian Gulf, though the Pentagon has drawn up such choices for the White Home.
“The capabilities that the U.S. supplies for the Afghans to have the ability to fight the Taliban and different threats that reside in Afghanistan are essential to their success,” Gen. Richard D. Clarke, the pinnacle of Particular Operations Command, instructed the Senate on Thursday.
Julian E. Barnes and Eric Schmitt reported from Washington, and Thomas Gibbons-Neff from Kabul, Afghanistan. Najim Rahim contributed reporting from Kabul.