Presidential election outcomes: What we all know — and don’t know — to this point

The presidential election is just too near name.

As of 1:10 am Japanese time, neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump has but come near successful the 270 electoral votes wanted for victory. Most key swing states haven’t been known as for both candidate. And we are going to merely have to attend a while longer for extra votes to be counted. (You’ll be able to comply with dwell outcomes from Resolution Desk at this hyperlink.)

There are further challenges to calling these races, as a result of unprecedented variety of mail ballots due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Democrats had been extra prone to vote by mail, and Republicans had been extra prone to vote in particular person on Election Day. So, as we’ve seen all through the evening, counts of which candidate is forward might be deceptive, if these counts are overly reliant on a type of kinds of votes (mail versus election day in-person).

Trump has performed effectively in his must-win states to this point, however some haven’t but been known as

The opposite must-win states for Trump that the polls indicated had been shut are North Carolina and Georgia. Each of those states, notably, acquired a head begin on processing mail ballots, so lots of them may very well be counted shortly on election evening. Nonetheless, they haven’t but been known as. Trump could have an edge, however we’ll have to attend for extra votes to be counted to know for certain.

Biden’s most believable path to victory continues to be Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania

But Joe Biden’s most believable path to victory didn’t depend on any of those states. As an alternative, it went by some mixture of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. And the issue right here is that these states might be notably gradual to rely mail ballots (as a result of Republican legislators wouldn’t let these ballots be processed weeks earlier, as they’re in most different swing states). Trump at present leads the rely in all three of those states, however that was all the time anticipated, since that rely is especially of the Election Day in-person vote. Biden’s efficiency is anticipated to enhance by quite a bit as extra mail ballots are slowly counted.

If Biden holds on to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania — and avoids some fully sudden loss elsewhere — not one of the different states listed on this article matter. Biden would have greater than the 270 electoral votes he must win. Sadly, we could have to attend some time till it’s decided whether or not he did in reality win these states.

If Biden falls brief in Pennsylvania, a number of different key contests come into play

Now, if Trump can pry away all three of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania from Biden, he’ll have received a reasonably clear victory, as he did in 2016. But when, say, Trump wins simply Pennsylvania, then a number of different key contests may resolve the result of the election.

Essential to Biden right here can be successful Arizona and Nevada, neither of which has but been known as by Resolution Desk. Biden is at present main Arizona, however that lead could shrink as in-person Election Day votes are counted. Nevada hasn’t reported outcomes but: Democrats felt good about early voting numbers there, however Biden’s underperformance with Latinos in Florida and Texas has made some nervous.

Lastly, there are the 2 oddball states that assign a few of their electoral votes to the winner in every congressional district, quite than handing all of them to the statewide victor. Two districts in these states are aggressive: Maine’s Second Congressional District (which has not but been known as) and Nebraska’s Second Congressional District (which Resolution Desk has known as for Biden). They’ve one electoral vote every.

General, there are a number of the way the election may nonetheless play out — from a Biden victory to a Trump win to a prolonged recount battle to the dreaded 269-269 tie. We’ll simply have to attend for extra votes to be counted.