Tonight’s Democratic Debate: What to Watch For

Will Sanders and Warren conflict or de-escalate?

For the final yr, the 2 main liberals within the 2020 race have taken pains to keep away from direct battle. However in latest days there was growing tension between Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who’re competing for left-leaning voters within the Iowa caucuses on Feb. 3. Their relationship took a dramatic activate Monday evening as Ms. Warren accused Mr. Sanders of telling her, at a personal one-on-one assembly in 2018, that he didn’t consider a girl may win the presidency.

So how will all of it play on Tuesday’s debate stage?

The 2 candidates look like on a collision course.

Mr. Sanders and his marketing campaign have vehemently denied that he made the comment, along with his marketing campaign supervisor, Faiz Shakir, going as far as to name it a “lie.” Even when Mr. Sanders continues to steadfastly reject the comment, the difficulty threatens to revive anger amongst Democratic girls who consider he didn’t do sufficient to help Hillary Clinton after shedding the Democratic presidential nomination to her in 2016.

Ms. Warren, who has trailed Mr. Sanders in latest polls, made the accusation in an announcement on Monday evening, however she additionally mentioned she had “no real interest in discussing this personal assembly any additional.” She could also be pressed for particulars onstage, nevertheless, creating a gap for her to attract a sharper distinction with Mr. Sanders — or to maintain questions in regards to the assembly alive.

The story has injected a recent layer of uncertainty and threat into the Democratic major: Voters have thus far recoiled from intraparty warfare, apprehensive that such fight takes the main target away from defeating President Trump.

Can Biden keep above the fray?

In December, Joseph R. Biden Jr. delivered maybe his strongest debate efficiency up to now. He spoke confidently about international coverage, a topic space during which he’s fluent and educated. He took swipes at Mr. Trump. And most importantly, he largely stayed out of the fray as a number of of his opponents battled each other.

Can he pull it off once more?

All through the marketing campaign, Mr. Biden has typically been a shaky debater underneath the scrutiny of a front-runner’s highlight. He has launched into unusual tangents, strained to defend his file on points like busing and struggled to reply crisply to even predictable questions and assaults. These uneven debate performances have bothered some Democratic voters as they contemplated which candidate may most successfully problem Mr. Trump.

Now, lower than three weeks earlier than the caucuses, some polls counsel that Mr. Biden is gaining energy within the leadoff nominating state, the place the race is fluid and aggressive — making the stakes for a powerful and reassuring debate efficiency even increased.

But he has been underneath explicit assault not too long ago from Mr. Sanders, who has focused Mr. Biden’s Senate vote in 2002 to authorize navy motion in Iraq — an issue on which Mr. Sanders appears primed to attempt to bait his rival right into a struggle.

Has Buttigieg peaked?

Again in November, Pete Buttigieg held a commanding lead within the gold-standard ballot of Iowa carried out by The Des Moines Register and CNN.

Now he has fallen again within the pack, putting third in Friday’s Register/CNN poll and a Monmouth University poll launched Monday. Mr. Buttigieg, the previous mayor of South Bend, Ind., has confronted assaults about his fund-raising — together with one from a voter at a city corridor occasion Monday in Winterset, Iowa, who bemoaned Mr. Buttigieg’s California “wine cave” occasion in December — together with continued doubts about his means to enchantment to Democrats of coloration.

Alone within the discipline, Mr. Buttigieg’s marketing campaign technique relies on not only a sturdy Iowa efficiency, but additionally a victory in a state the place situations for his success are near-perfect: an older, tuned-in voters of white voters longing to be impressed by the following new factor.

All of Mr. Buttigieg’s debate performances have been sturdy. The query for him on Tuesday is that if a relaxed and knowledgeable debate displaying is sufficient to transfer undecided Iowans to his aspect to select up the few thousand caucusgoers who could make a distinction between a first- and a fourth-place displaying.

How will candidates cope with diminishing debate-stage range?

The Democratic discipline was as soon as sprawling and various. However the candidates who have qualified for Tuesday evening’s debate stage are all white and predominantly male, a disappointing dynamic for a lot of voters and activists who’re unenthusiastic in regards to the prospect of supporting one other white man for president.

Do the one two girls remaining onstage, Ms. Warren and Senator Amy Klobuchar, remind voters that they nonetheless have an opportunity to make historical past by electing the primary feminine president?

Ms. Warren, the one lady among the many top-polling contenders, has appeared more and more open to discussing gender in latest months — and the tensions with Mr. Sanders are prone to power the difficulty to the forefront.

And Ms. Klobuchar has freely mentioned the challenges that feminine candidates face within the race….