Regardless of a wave of cancellations and postponements in response to the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic — with all the pieces from the NBA to B
Regardless of a wave of cancellations and postponements in response to the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic — with all the pieces from the NBA to Broadway on maintain — at the very least three states are set to go ahead their presidential primaries as scheduled this Tuesday, March 17.
Voters in Arizona, Florida, and Illinois will all vote in what is predicted to be one other good day for former Vice President Joe Biden.
In Ohio, nevertheless, Gov. Mike DeWine really useful Monday that in-person voting for the first mustn’t go ahead as scheduled as a result of coronavirus outbreak. According to Politico, the state is “supporting a lawsuit looking for to postpone in-person voting till June 2,” which places Tuesday’s major in critical doubt.
However whereas some major contests is perhaps on maintain over the outbreak, one factor is evident. At this level, there are simply two candidates with an actual shot at claiming the Democratic nomination for president: Biden and progressive rival Sen. Bernie Sanders. (Rep. Tulsi Gabbard is technically nonetheless within the race, regardless of having claimed only two delegates.)
Virtually 600 delegates might be up for grabs, making the March 17 primaries the third-biggest delegate haul of the race behind solely Tremendous Tuesday and a yet-to-come slew of Japanese seaboard races in April. Of the 4 states to vote, Florida is each the most important and essentially the most Biden-friendly.
Listed below are the ballot closing instances, in Japanese time and native, listed alphabetically by state:
- Arizona: 9/10 pm ET, 7 pm native (Arizona is in Mountain time, however solely parts of the state observe daylight saving time, which implies that a lot of the state is three hours off Japanese time proper now)
- Florida: 7 pm ET, 7 pm native
- Illinois: Eight pm ET, 7 pm native
- Ohio: 7:30 pm ET, 7:30 pm native (if the first goes ahead as scheduled)
Some states could possibly be known as quickly after polls shut on major evening: In Florida, for instance, Biden holds a hefty polling lead that would point out a fast decision to that race.
And not one of the states to vote on March 17 rely closely on mail-in voting, which delayed leads to California and Washington earlier this month.
Biden’s margin of victory may make all of the distinction
Whereas polling isn’t prophecy, all indicators level to a four-state sweep by Biden on Tuesday. He leads within the FiveThirtyEight state-level polling averages by 23.8 (Arizona), 41.2 (Florida), 30 (Illinois), and 24.9 (Ohio) factors, and nothing from Sunday’s 11th Democratic debate would counsel that Sanders has been in a position to blunt the previous vp’s standing within the polls.
Meaning the important thing query for Sanders might be certainly one of margins: Can he stop Biden from claiming a mathematically insurmountable delegate lead within the major?
Vox’s Andrew Prokop points out that March 17 is perhaps a do-or-die second for the Sanders marketing campaign:
General, although, March 17 is the day the place the delegate math for a Sanders comeback can change from implausible to near-impossible.
If Biden wins 60 p.c of delegates on that day (about the identical proportion he gained this Tuesday), Sanders would then have to win 66 p.c of all remaining delegates to catch up.
CNN’s Harry Enten, a senior politics analyst with a deal with polling, projects that Biden may internet round 200 delegates on Tuesday — a crushing blow to Sanders’s nomination possibilities.
If Sanders doesn’t exit after Tuesday, nevertheless, you may count on {a partially} coronavirus-induced lull within the Democratic major going ahead. Georgia postponed its March 24 primary till Could. And the following major delegate-awarding day isn’t till April 28 (although there may nonetheless be a handful of primaries, together with the symbolically vital Wisconsin, within the interim).
However first, each candidates must see how issues unfold on Tuesday.