Welcome to Ballot Watch, our weekly take a look at polling data and survey analysis on the candidates, voters and points that can form the 2020 ele
Welcome to Ballot Watch, our weekly take a look at polling data and survey analysis on the candidates, voters and points that can form the 2020 election.
With three nominating contests down, 101 pledged delegates have been divided among the many Democratic presidential candidates. On Saturday, 54 extra will likely be up for grabs in South Carolina’s major.
However three days later, the stakes get loads greater. Greater than 1,300 delegates — about one-third of the out there complete — will likely be in play on Super Tuesday subsequent week, when 15 states and territories and Democrats overseas vote.
That’s most likely the largest cause the end result in South Carolina issues a lot: Who succeeds there may have a giant affect on what occurs three days later. If former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. wins in South Carolina, the place polls show him leading, he may experience that momentum into probably the most delegate-rich voting day on the calendar.
If he doesn’t win South Carolina, the weakness of his ground operation in most Tremendous Tuesday states and the energy of his competitors would put Mr. Biden at a drawback. Senator Bernie Sanders, the present front-runner, is properly positioned in most of the Tremendous Tuesday states; a couple of decisive victories within the largest contests may make his path to the nomination a lot clearer. Then there’s former Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg of New York, who has spent greater than $500 million on promoting and will likely be on the poll for the primary time on Tuesday after sitting out all 4 of February’s Democratic contests.
Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota additionally see some vivid alternatives, significantly of their residence states, which each vote on Tuesday. (So does Vermont, Mr. Sanders’s residence.) And former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., might also be capable of rating a significant variety of delegates, though no specific state seems simply winnable for him.
Here’s a take a look at what polls are telling us concerning the six states with probably the most delegates on the Tremendous Tuesday map.
California: 415 pledged delegates
The massive prize. California moved its major as much as Tremendous Tuesday for 2020, and its huge delegate haul makes this newcomer the moment star. With its comparatively liberal, closely Latino Democratic voters, it’s properly suited to Mr. Sanders. And certain sufficient, after his big victory in neighboring Nevada, he holds a commanding lead in most California polls — such that every one of his opponents are in danger of falling wanting the 15 % threshold wanted to assert any statewide delegates. (They might nonetheless win delegates in congressional districts.)
In lots of polls, Ms. Warren is in competition for second place. So long as she hits the brink, she may decide up a large chunk of delegates with out successful the state. And Mr. Biden and Mr. Bloomberg are every inside hanging distance; a Monmouth University poll launched final week confirmed Mr. Sanders with 24 % help and Mr. Biden subsequent with 17 %, thanks partly to sturdy backing from black voters.
Texas: 228 pledged delegates
Texas is Exhibit A for why the South Carolina major issues. Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders are neck-and-neck in most polls, with each candidates counting on a various however fragile coalition. The outcomes from South Carolina, anticipated to be the yr’s first nominating contest with a majority-black voters, have the potential to assist tip the scales in Mr. Biden’s favor.
Mr. Sanders has invested closely in Texas, significantly in search of to drive turnout among the many state’s giant Latino inhabitants, which made up roughly one-third of the Democratic major vote in 2016. He has a formidable opponent on the left in Ms. Warren, who grew up in neighboring Oklahoma and landed in third place, at 15 %, in a University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll earlier this month. (Mr. Sanders had 24 % and Mr. Biden had 22 % in that ballot.)
Mr. Bloomberg can also be an element. He has flooded the airwaves in Texas, inserting 80 % of all political advertisements within the state, in response to an evaluation by The Dallas Morning News.
North Carolina: 110 pledged delegates
Subsequent door to Mr. Biden’s self-described South Carolina firewall, North Carolina lengthy appeared like an nearly equally secure state for him. However early this yr, as Mr. Bloomberg’s marketing campaign accelerated and Mr. Sanders consolidated his help amongst liberal voters (a extra plentiful group right here than in South Carolina), Mr. Biden dropped within the polls.
All three of these candidates stand likelihood on Tuesday. A current University of Massachusetts Lowell poll carried out by YouGov confirmed Mr. Sanders edging forward with 23 % help, Mr. Bloomberg at 19 % and Mr. Biden at 16 %.
Virginia: 99 pledged delegates
Together with North Carolina, Virginia most likely gives Mr. Bloomberg his finest shot at a big victory. A Monmouth University poll earlier this month confirmed Mr. Sanders and Mr. Bloomberg tied at 22 %, with Mr. Biden at 18 % — technically a three-way…