By Hugh Bronstein and Maximilian Heath
BUENOS AIRES, Dec 23 (Reuters) – Argentina’s 2021/22 wheat crop is expected at a record 21.5 million tonnes, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in a report on Thursday, citing better than expected yields as its reason for increasing its previous 21 million tonne forecast.
Weather experts said they expect better rains in January to help the development of recently planted soy and corn crops.
The Argentine wheat harvest is 78.3% completed and expected to end in January. The South American grains powerhouse is a major wheat exporter, with neighboring Brazil its main buyer.
“The national average yield has reached 3.28 tonnes per hectare over the last seven days. Sustained improvement in harvested yields allows us to raise our production projection to a new record,” the exchange said in its weekly crop report.
The exchange left its 57-million-tonne corn estimate and its 44-million-tonne soybean harvest estimates unchanged for the 2021/22 season. It said 73.3% of this year’s expected soy area has been planted so far along with 60.2% of expected corn area.
The dryness that has stressed wide pockets of the normally fertile Pampas farm belt in December should give way to better rains in January, crop weather experts said.
“From what we can see from short- and medium-term forecasts, rainfall will not meet demand. We are not saying it won’t rain for the rest of December, but there will not be water supply of large scale and good volume,” said German Heinzenknecht, a meteorologist at consultancy Applied Climatology.
“We are optimistic that moving forward over January, we will once again have favorable wet windows over the eastern fringe of the country – the region that most needs water,” he said.
Growers were concerned about the La Nina climate phenomenon, which usually brings drought to the Pampas. But any La Nina-related dryness this season should disappear by next month, said Cristian Russo, an agronomist at the Rosario grains exchange.
“The influence of La Nina will probably begin to weaken as January progresses, which would be very good news for soybeans and corn,” Russo said.
Growers are expecting average to very good soy and corn harvests this season, depending on January rains.
“No matter how small the rains are, the corn harvest is going to be good. If it rains a little more, it will be excellent,” said Francisco Santillan, a farmer in the bread-basket province of Buenos Aires.
“I’m not concerned about soy, either,” he added. “We are going to have average production, at least.”
(Reporting by Maximilian Heath and Hugh Bronstein Editing by Chris Reese, Bernadette Baum and Cynthia Osterman)
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