By Karen Braun
FORT COLLINS, Colo., Dec 2 (Reuters) – Grain traders have not been too impressed with U.S. corn and soybean export sales or shipment volumes in recent weeks and months, especially when compared with last year’s breakneck pace. Some discrepancies in weekly datasets have made the evaluation more difficult.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture on a weekly basis reports two different sets of numbers by which market participants track U.S. exports: export inspections and weekly export sales, which include actual shipments.
A cumulative discrepancy between Monday’s export inspections and Thursday’s weekly exports is apparent in corn. Through Nov. 25, corn inspections since Sept. 1 total 8.6 million tonnes and weekly exports total 9.6 million tonnes.
Nearly a third of that difference can be accounted for in the varying totals to China, and that makes sense since China currently accounts for one-third of total 2021-22 U.S. corn bookings.
The cumulative soybean data is much more aligned. Both inspections and weekly exports imply total 2021-22 soybean shipments through Nov. 25 around 21.1 million tonnes.
Because of the large weekly volumes of soybeans that leave U.S. ports this time of year, sometimes there are bigger discrepancies by week. This was particularly the case earlier this month when soybean inspections for the week ended Nov. 4 showed at 2.6 million tonnes, and then the weekly export data three days later suggested 3.7 million tonnes, among the highest ever recorded.
The latest numbers put inspections for that week at 2.9 million tonnes and weekly exports at 3.6 million, so a large gap remains, but this should be slightly less worrisome because marketing-year totals to date are mostly in agreement.
USDA officials said via email that exports of commodities are reported when vessels sail from ports. That is the data reported on Thursdays by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).
The Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS) each Monday reports export vessels after an export inspection certificate has been issued or finalized. Both datasets are published for the same period, which is the week ended the previous Thursday.
Vessels may sail without an FGIS inspection certificate, so sometimes FGIS and FAS report the same shipment in different reporting periods. This would explain how, for example, soybean inspections for the week ended Nov. 18 were revised upward by about 750,000 tonnes a week later.
This suggests that the market should not overreact if weekly inspection data comes in much lower than expected since there could be delayed data forthcoming. Keeping track of both inspections and exports and any changes from week to week is the best approach.
It remains unclear why there is such a difference between the two datasets for corn this year. Through the same week last year, both exports and inspections suggested total corn exports approaching 10.4 million tonnes.
The final database of record is the U.S. Census Bureau, which publishes U.S. trade data monthly, and the October 2021 batch is set for release on Tuesday. While this data is considered “final,” it sometimes gets tweaked many months out, so it is a good idea to always download a fresh history for analysis.
TRACKING SALES AND EXPORTS
USDA last month pegged 2021-22 U.S. corn exports at 2.5 billion bushels (63.5 million tonnes), down 9% from the previous year’s high. Soybean exports are projected at 2.05 billion bushels (55.8 million tonnes), also down 9% from what was a record in 2020-21.
Data published on Thursday showed U.S. corn export sales for 2021-22 at 35.4 million tonnes through Nov. 25. That represents 56% of USDA’s forecast and is just below the year-ago 57%, which was a seven-year high. Much of those sales hinge on large Chinese purchases from May 2021 and earlier.
Only 1.26 million tonnes of China’s current 12 million-tonne haul had been shipped through Nov. 25, which may not initially be concerning since soybeans are the focus of exporters right now. However, cumulative U.S. corn shipments to China a year ago were more than double current levels despite a lower purchased total last year.
Market conditions, including shipping costs, were much different a year ago, so fears may not be warranted yet. However, traders will be expecting larger U.S. corn volumes to begin moving to China in early 2022 after the soybean season has cooled off. Any cancellations by China would certainly spook the industry.
U.S. soybean export sales for 2021-22 totaled 37.2 million tonnes as of Nov. 25, some 67% of USDA’s full-year target, perhaps a bit light versus other comparable years. Last year that figure was 87% by the same date.
China’s bean bookings totaled 20.4 million tonnes as of Nov. 25, accounting for 55% of total sales. Excluding the two trade war years, that is China’s lowest share of sales by the date in over a decade, and that is not a flattering statistic considering that many market analysts already have concerns that U.S. soy exports could fall short of expectations.
(Editing by Matthew Lewis)
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