Quick overview
- Today’s earnings lineup includes Tesla, SAP, and IBM, highlighting key trends in the global tech economy.
- UK inflation is expected to rise to 4.0% year-on-year, the highest since January 2024, raising concerns about persistent price pressures.
- Investors are closely monitoring earnings reports for insights into AI spending, software growth, and industrial margins.
- Gold prices experienced significant volatility, dropping from record highs after profit-taking following the Fed’s rate decrease.
Today’s earnings lineup represents a cross-section of the global tech economy — from EV innovation (Tesla) to enterprise software (SAP) and IBM.
Key Market Events to Watch Today: UK CPI and Q3 Earnings
Three industry heavyweights are set to report quarterly results this week, with investors eyeing signals on AI spending, software growth, and industrial margins. But first we have the UK CPI inflation report.
UK Inflation Expected to Rebound to 4.0% — Highest Since January 2024
UK headline CPI is projected to rise to 4.0% year-on-year in September, up from 3.8%, marking its strongest pace since early 2024 and aligning with the Bank of England’s forecast.
In the previous report, inflation held steady at 3.8%, while core CPI eased to 3.6% and services inflation fell to 4.7% due to volatile airfares. This time, economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics — who share the 4.0% consensus — expect higher motor fuel and airfare base effects to add around 0.23 percentage points to the headline figure.
Services inflation is anticipated to rebound to 4.9%, reinforcing concerns that underlying price pressures remain stubbornly high, particularly in the UK’s services sector.
Key Earnings to Watch: Tesla, SAP, and IBM Step Into the Spotlight
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA)
Q3 2025 Earnings — After Market Close (AMC)
- Consensus EPS: $0.56
- Tesla’s results will be closely watched for signs of margin recovery amid global price cuts and rising competition in the EV market.
- Investors will focus on production and delivery figures, especially from the Cybertruck and Model Y lines, as well as progress at new gigafactories in Mexico and Texas.
- Updates on robotaxi and AI initiatives (Dojo chip, FSD software) could dominate the earnings call and determine post-report sentiment.
- Analysts expect revenue growth to decelerate, though improving cost efficiencies could stabilize profitability heading into Q4.
- With the stock hovering near key support levels, this report could act as a turning point for Tesla’s 2025 trajectory.
SAP SE (NYSE: SAP)
Q3 2025 Earnings — After Market Close (AMC)
- Consensus EPS: $1.73
- SAP’s earnings will serve as a barometer for enterprise software and cloud demand in Europe, with special focus on RISE with SAP adoption.
- The market will look for evidence of sustained cloud revenue growth, expected to rise around 20% year-over-year, offsetting slower on-premise sales.
- Investors will also watch operating margins, which could be pressured by AI-related investments and integration costs from recent acquisitions.
- Currency headwinds and softer European enterprise spending could weigh on results, though SAP’s expanding AI-driven product suite remains a key long-term catalyst.
- A beat on guidance could strengthen sentiment toward European tech stocks, which have lagged U.S. peers in recent quarters.
IBM (NYSE: IBM)
Q3 2025 Earnings — After Market Close (AMC)
- Consensus EPS: $2.45
- IBM’s results will provide insight into AI monetization through watsonx, as the company attempts to rebrand itself as an enterprise AI solutions leader.
- Expect investors to focus on consulting revenue growth and hybrid cloud performance, particularly its integration with Red Hat services.
- Margins and free cash flow will be key indicators of whether IBM’s transformation strategy is gaining traction amid rising operational costs.
- With global IT budgets tightening, analysts expect modest revenue growth but improved profitability from cost controls.
- Strong cash flow guidance or new AI partnership announcements could help offset otherwise muted top-line expansion.
Gold Give Back $300
Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate decrease as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. Earlier this week, gold jumped beyond $3,700 and reached $3,707.42 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease to 4.25%. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $3,627, a $80 decline from the new all-time high. As traders locked in profits after the rally driven by dovish predictions, there was a sudden fall but buyers returned on Friday pushing the price $60 higher. Yesterday buyers continued to push and XAU reached another record high at $4,381 but we saw a $300 crash, so the volatility is increasing.
USD/JPY Returns to 150
Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. However, the new BOJ governor the JPY has weakened and USD/JPY soared to 153 but returned below 152 yesterday.
USD/JPY – Weekly Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Starts the Rebound Off Support
Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down below $105,000 before finding support at the 200 daily SMA (purple) and recovering above $115,000 but then fell toward $100K again. However this week BTC has turned higher again, climbing above $111K.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ethereum Falls Below $4,000
Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. ON Friday we saw a dive below $3.500 however buying resumed on Sunday and ETH/USD climbed above $4,500 but returned back down below $4,000 again this week.
ETH/USD – Weekly Chart
Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank’s local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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